I loooooove winning!

Thursday, August 5, 2010

The Greatness of Clinton Clifton

For all of you stat junkies out there (and usually if you are on whatif there's a good chance you are) I'd like to share with you a little project I've been working on in my spare time. I don't know if it was a good use of my spare time, but it was a fun little project to accomplish. I'm sure most of you have heard of the baseball statistic WAR (wins above replacement). I personally think it is the strongest statistical measure of a baseball player's value that we currently have. It incorporates offensive ability, defensive ability, positional difficulty, and durability and wraps them up in a very easy to understand and interpret statistic. Joey Votto was worth 76 more runs than a replacement level player which means he was worth 7 wins for the Reds this season. Since the going rate of a win is X dollars, Joey Votto provided the Reds an amount of "7X" value. Simple and easy. So, I got to thinking...what if we took this same approach for the players in Hardball Dynasty? After a ton of calculations and an excel spreadsheet about a million rows and columns total, I am happy to announce that I have compiled WAR values for both the season 15 and 16 seasons for both pitchers and hitters in the 1530 World.

Which brings me to the title of this post. Clinton Clifton is really good. I mean, really good. He led 1530 in WAR in both season 15 and 16 with 10.3 and 11.7 WAR seasons respectively. To put that in perspective Albert Pujols led the major leagues in 2009 with an 8.7 WAR season. So, in season 16 Clifton was worth roughly 3 wins more to the Garde Imperial than Pujols was to the Cards last season. The WAR scale, in case you haven't seen it runs something like this:

Negative - You suck, you are worse than replacement. I can call someone up from AAA and he would be better than you.
0 - You are exactly replacement level.
0-2 - League Average Player
2-4 - Above Average Player
5 -7 - All Star Calibur Player
8+ - MVP Type Season

So, without further ado, here are the ten most valuable players in 1530 Homer the last two seasons.

The Top 10 in Career WAR for 1530 (season 15 & 16 combined)
1. Clinton Clifton - C - Montreal - 22.0
2. Benji Neill - 2B - Chicago - 19.5
3. Francis Herzog - CF - Buffalo - 18.5
4. Henry Wise - 1B - Durham - 17.6
5. Ken Daly - 1B - Montgomery - 15.8
6. Kory Catallanotto - 1B - Santa Cruz - 14.9
7. Milton Simmons - RF - Honolulu - 14.1
8. Terry Buford - 2B - Montreal - 13.3
9. Esteban Owen - RF - Houston - 12.9
10. Steve Townsend - RF - Chicago - 12.3

In my next couple of posts, I'll pretty much leave it up to the league. If you're someone like me and would like to know more about what is behind the numbers, what went into them, how we came to this number I'd be happy to provide a detailed description of it. If you don't care and just want to see the numbers, I can just post Top 10-20 by position group. If you don't care at all, then let me know and I will hand over all blogging responsibilities to the guy jmercer who actually knows what he's doing. Just let me know in the world chat. I thought it was pretty cool and actually provided some value when looking at players. Anyway, hope you enjoy it.

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