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Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Trade Review- San Juan / St Louis

Keith Lanning for Darren Parkinson, Paulie Fox, and Alexei Lopez

1. Production - Lanning is a middle of the order slugger that typically produces 30-40 homers, over 100 rbi's, a decent average, and too many strikeouts. He has yet to put it all together and win an award. Parkinson, currently in his rookie season, is struggling. He is batting .230 with modest power and base running numbers. Fox Is in his third season in the majors and is struggling to figure it all out as evidenced by his career ERA of 5.73, although he was a two time all star in the minors. Lopez has an OPS of .958 in his three minor league seasons. Advantage - San Juan

2. Current Ratings - Lanning has effectively maxed out. He is a plus defensive player with an incredible glove. At the dish, his plus power is limited by his average splits and below average eye. He is off the charts on intangibles. Parkinson is a plus defensive COF with very good intangibles. He has decent power, especially vs. lefties, but is prone to striking out due to a poor eye. Fox is a middle of the rotation lefty that will struggle vs righties. He has excellent command and velocity with two + pitches. Fox is another with plus plus intangibles. Lopez is a liability in the field with decent offensive numbers, but is he good enough at the plate to fill the DH/1B position? Advantage - Even

3. Projected Ratings - all have effectively maxed out, with Lopez as the only one with significant growth potential. If he reaches his projection, he would be an acceptable bat at 1B. Advantage - St. Louis

4. Contract - Lanning is in the first year of a four year, 8.4 million per year deal. He would most likely extend if offered after his current deal. Parkinson, Fox, and Lopez are all making the minimum, with Fox the first to hit arbitration next season. I would give the advantage here to St. Louis as I don't believe that Lanning is worth the cash. Advantage - St Louis

5. Overall - This deal is a classic "change of scenery" deal in which the production isn't living up to the overall ratings. Each of the guys in this deal are flawed - Lanning with a poor eye and pedestrian vs. RHP, Parkinson with same as Lanning, Fox with poor vs RHB and two poor pitches, and Lopez with a below average eye and poor fielding. But, it isn't a bad deal - San Juan is making a run at the World Series and St. Louis is rebuilding and both accomplished their objective. As long as the expectations aren't too high, both should be pleased. Advantage - Even

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