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Wednesday, October 27, 2010

What the H-E-Double Hockey Sticks is BABIP?

Thanks to kylepeak for compiling the data and coming up with the idea for the post -

BABIP, or batting average on balls in play, is a way to measure the relative luck of any given team vs. the rest of the league. In other words, a high BABIP relative to the league average would be difficult to maintain throughout the season and, thus, might be described as being lucky.

It is traditionally used to spot unusual seasons by pitchers, but may also be used in other ways, such as determinig hitting units that are getting lucky. BABIP is calculated as follows: (hits minus home runs) divided by (at bats minus strike outs minus home runs plus sacrifice flies). For our league, we have an average BABIP of .300. The Top 10 BABIP teams are as follows (stats as of the 10/25 PM Cycle):

1. Los Angeles (.337)
2. Montgomery (.336)
3. Chicago (.330)
4. New Orleans (.328)
5. El Paso (.326)
6. Honolulu (.325)
7. Pittsburgh (.323)
8. Salt Lake City (.322)
9. Cleveland (.319)
10. New Britain (.317)

The Bottom 10 BABIP are as follows:

1. Philadelphia (.232)
2. Montreal (.251)
3. Kansas City (.271)
4. Dover (.273)
5. San Antonio (.274)
6. Norfolk (.280)
7. Boston (.285)
8. Oklahoma City (.286)
9. Baltimore (.289)
10. Scottsdale (.290)

However, this does not tell the whole story. Obviously, some players are more adept at hiting a ball in play than others. So, let's add team batting average to find the teams that are truly getting lucky:

1. Salt Lake City .0477(BABIP of .3217 minus Team Batting Average of .2740)
2. New Britain .0441
3. Montgomery .0406
4. Pittsburgh .0404
5. Baltimore .0402

And the ones that are truly unlucky:

1. Montreal .0088
2. Santa Cruz .0131
3. Boston .0157
4. Buffalo .0158
5. Dover .0160

OK, but what does uit mean? If teams were stocks, it would be wise to buy Montreal, Santa Cruz, etc. and sell SLC, New Britain, etc. It will be difficult for both groups to maintain, and they will likely both move towards the mean.

Monday, October 25, 2010

AAA Call-up contenders

Every year teams call up top AAA talent in the second month of the season. Here are some to look for -

Chicago SS Quinton Trammell

Cincinnati SP Bubbles Judd

Houston RF Donnie Minor

LA SS Carson Hardy

LA RF Magglio Armas

Montgomery SS Al Vazquez

New Orleans 3B Alex Montana

Norfolk 2B Mack Shields

Norfolk 3B Enrique Vincente

Salem 1B Burt Norton

Week One Power Rankings

1. Houston Hangovers (15-6) - The Hangovers own the best record in the Majors. They have won 12 of their last 13 after begining the season by losing 3 of 4 vs. El Paso. They have the best pitching staff, #8 hitting unit, and an average fielding squad. They lead the league in exp. win % at .708. Run Differential +43

2. Buffalo Bisons (14-7) - The Bisons began the season by taking 3 of 4 from NL power Hartford. They also swept Norfolk and Louisville. The Bisons are ranked first in both fielding and batting, but are below average in pitching. Thet have a solid expected win percentage of .638. Run Differential +35

3. Hololulu Tropics (13-8) - The Tropics finish off a 1-2-3 sweep for the NL. They have won 8of their last 9, sweeping Pitttsburgh in the process. They are top 10 in both pitching and batting, and just above average in fielding. They have an exp. win % of .632. Run Differential +28

4. Montreal Garde Imperiale (13-8) - The Garde are the top ranked AL team, despite some of the numbers that we have come to expect from the perrenial power. They lost 2 of 3 vs rival Cincinnati, but rebounded with series wins vs. OKC, SLC, St. Louis, and New Orleans. They are #8 in pitching, #2 in fielding, and only just above average in batting. They have an exp win % of .583. Run Differential +17

5. Oklahoma City Falcons(14-7) - The Falcons make their rankings debut as the 2nd ranked AL squad. They have won 10 of their last 12, including a sweep of Philadelphia. They have the #3 pitching staff, but the other units are below average. They will need to improve in these areas to remain in the Top 10. Run Differential +18

6. Boston Tea Partiers (14-7) The AL East leaders have won every series and look to be back on top of a very competitive division. Their Top 5 pitching staff is carrying below average fielding and batting units. Their exp win % is only .563, which is why they aren't higher on the list. Run Differential +13

7. New Orleans Causeway Cajuns (13-8) The Cajuns make their debut two spots behind division leaders Oklahoma City. They do have a gripe, however, taking 2 of 3 from the Falcons and sweeping Cincinnati. Their exp win % and run differential are skewed by a 24-3 thumping of Salem. They are #3 in batting, #7 in fielding, but must improve their below average pitching staff. Run Differential +27

8. Durham Tar Heels (13-8) The Tar Heels make their debut as the #2 team in the AL East. They have won series vs. Salem, San Antonio, and Philadelphia, winning 11 of their last 15 games. They are the only team in the top 10 with top 10 pitching, batting, and fielding rankings. Their exp win % of .608 is tied for second best in the AL. Run Differential +23

9. Hartford Whalers (14-7) The NL powerhouse debuts towards the bottom of the top 10, a place with which they are not accustomed. A 2-16 record in Spring Training carried over into the regular season as they started losing 3 of 4 to Buffalo. They have rebounded strongly and have only lost 4 games since. Expect them to climb these rankings quickly. Run Differential +13

10. Cincinnati Redlegs (12-9) The Top 10 would not be complete without the inclusion of the World Series Champ. They did win 2 of 3 from Montreal, but are only 7-7 since. They own a Top 5 pitching staff, but need to improve average batting and fielding. Run Differential +17

Just Missed -

Santa Cruz
El Paso
Montgomery