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Tuesday, March 15, 2011

MVP Analysis - Win Shares

AL -

If you are a loyal reader, nerd, or both. You will remember a post discussing a concept called "win shares" that attempts to value players based upon the amount of wins that they generated for their team above the average player. If you are interested in the methodaology, the post is called "HOF Positional Players Win Shares" and appeared on 1/19/11.

I took each of the candidates and have the follwoing information.


For defense, it is a bit more subjective. Basically you value a player's worth in the field relative to an "average" player at that position using plus plays, fielding percentage, and other defensive statistics. Since the "average player" is worth 0 wins over .500, and since the "average player" will not always be able to be an average SS or CF, positional adjustments must come into play. Stolen bases and stolen base attempts are also used.

AL

In Season 19, the average AL player batted .267, hit doubles on 15.5% of their hits, triples on 1.5% of their hits, homers on 14.4% of their hits, and walks on 8.3% of their plate appearances.

Here are the results:

1. Clinton Clifton - 4.99 games
2. Wendell Reed - 4.75 games
3 Jesus Pineda - 4.67 games
4. Jonathan Gload - 4.21 games
5. Henry Wise - 3.93 games

(note: the system does not have a good way of dealing with catchers so Clifton could be overrated. or underrated, for that matter)

NL

In Season 19, the average NL player batted .264, hit doubles on 15.5% of their hits, triples on 1.67% of their hits, homers on 13.3% of their hits, and walks on 8.1% of their plate appearances.

Here are the results:

1. Louis Spence - 5.01
2. Louie Delgado - 4.73
3. Luis Morales - 4.11
4. Carson Hardy - 3.20
5. Ken Daly - 2.97

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