I loooooove winning!

Monday, July 11, 2011

Hall of Fame - Positional Players Win Shares

Win Shares - Part 1

I'm not a numbers geek, but the concept is fairly straighforward. How many wins is a guy worth over the average player? To find out, you take the average statistical performance for a particular league in a particular season.

So for Sir Charles, for instance, I took the average player's stats from Seasons 1-9 and 13-16 from the NL, and 10-12 from the AL. Because that is exactly where and when he played.

This average player hit .272, hit doubles on .157 of at bats, triples on .024 of at bats, homers on .138 of at bats, and walks on .086 of at bats. I do this because now you are comparing Charles to a player from his league from his season. Each player is compared this way. Then you correct for positons (I just took the position that the player played the most)

One thing I added (and I'm not sure it is right to do so but it made sense to me) is to normalize the statistics to account for a "wins per season" metric. Should Charles' 214 at bats in season 17 count as a season? To account for this, I converted plate appearances to seasons. So, Sir Charles had 9,708 plate appearances. To convert this into seasons, I divided it by 648 (4 appearances per game x 162 games/year) to get how many "seasons" he played. I liked this beacuase a "win per plate appearance" sounds boring.

Thanks to WIS, plate appearances aren't readily available. I only got Sir Charles' because he is on teh all-time leaders list. Thankfully, so is Sir Eddie. I averaged their HBP/SF/SH and came up with the guess that each player will have .0175 more plate appearances than AB's plus BB's. Are we clear? Good.

Now to the good stuff.

First a look at who is in -

1. Sir Charles Lawrence

Sir Charles is the gold standard. He played 17 seasons and won 8 MVP's

Win Shares Per Season - 6.38

2. Rollie Walker

The catcher by which all others are measured (at least until Clifton makes it in)

Win Shares Per Season - 4.51

3. Eddie Reese

Ah, the good old days with Eddie batting clean-up for yours truly.

Win Shares Per Season - 4.48

4. Adam Lansing

The original Hangover and, some may say, the one that started the dynasty.

Win Shares Per Season - 4.34

OK, so you can see that, aside from Sir Freak, all HOF'rs are worth around 4.3-4.5 wins per season. This, I believe, is the barrier to entry for the Hall.

Now, to the Candidates

Gary Thornton

Win Shares Per Season - 4.71

Wow! Who would have thunk it? Take one look at his season 1 ratings - he was a special player. But he only played the equivalent of 6 ML seasons.

Rogers Torrealba

Win Shares Per Season - 2.26

He had a lot of support last season, and he is an 8-time all-star and one time MVP. If you belive in win shares, Torreabla is not HOF worthy.

Sparky McNamara

Win Shares Per Season - 2.93

Sparky was a plus defender that was integral to the Hangover dynasty. He has two rings to show for his trouble.

Jorge Ortiz

Win Shares Per Season - 5.02

Ortiz is in the same boat as Thornton - should someone with just the equivalent of just 7 seasons played be in the HOF? Win shares says yes, league has said a resounding "no" so far.

George Bowie

Win Shares Per Season - 4.97

Bowie appeared in only 3 all-star games, which seems to indicate that he doesn't have much of a chance for the Hall. However, win shares really likes him, and he is HOF-worthy.

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