I loooooove winning!

Thursday, March 17, 2011

DPS Preview

AL

#5 Montreal Garde Imperiale (102-60) vs. #1 Cincinnati Redlegs (111-51)

Regular Season - Montreal won 6 out of 10

Probable Starters

Game 1 - Sammy Iglesias (20-8) vs. Richard Aoki (21-7)
Game 2 - Heinie Conigliaro (18-10) vs. Brant Riggan (18-6)
Game 3 - Preston Forster (13-9) vs. Bubbles Judd (19-3)
Game 4 - TBD
Game 5 - TBD

#3 New Orleans Causeway Cajuns (86-76) vs. #2 Durham Tar Heels (99-63)

Regular Season - Durham won 7 out of 10

Game 1 - J.R. Beckett (21-7) vs. Philip Colin (18-9)
Game 2 - Steve Hamilton (15-14) vs. Gustavo Melo (13-10)
Game 3 - Willie Cedeno (14-7) vs. Aaron Simon (13-8)

Game 4 - TBD

Game 5 - TBD

NL

#5 Honolulu Tropics (90-72) vs. Los Angeles Hollywoods (115-47)

Regular Season - LA won 8 out of 10

Game 1 - Art Wingo (14-11) vs. Miguel Vazquez (20-5)
Game 2 - Randy Broome (16-9) vs. Louis Melville (20-6)
Game 3 - Marvin Wilkinson (14-6) vs. Victor Merrick (18-9)
Game 4 - TBD
Game 5 - TBD

#2 Houston Hangovers (109-53) vs. #3 Rochester Red Wings (100-62)

Regular Season - Rochester won 7 out of 10

Game 1 - Dave Darr (14-5) vs. Josh Floyd (17-3)
Game 2 - Wilfredo Veras (14-3) vs. Junior Montero (18-7)
Game 3 - Geraldo Mendez (15-3) vs. Jack Chapman (11-12)
Game 4 - TBD
Game 5 - TBD

Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Best FA Signing Revisited

Before the season, the blog identified the top Free Agent signings. Through the voting process, owners narrowed the candidates down to the following group. In the end, Buffalo's signing of Ahmad Bell was voted the best.


Junior Montero - SP - Rochester, 3 years, $18.9 million.

Then: I really like this deal. Montero is a top of the rotation guy that will produce in each of his three years. A very good signing.

Now: Montero went 18-7 with an ERA of 3.34 as Rochester won their division and clinched just their second playoff spot since Season 5. The #1 SP on a very good team. He was also an all-star and silver slugger winner.


Ahmad Bell - SS - Buffalo, 5 years, $50 million.

Then - Another good signing. $10 million per year is tremendous value for a guy that will hit 40 homers at a skill position. He should hold his ratings, but will need to move to another position as early as this year.

Now - Bell batted .285 with 28 homers and 116 RBI's for a Buffalo team that made the playoffs as a Wild Card. A move to 3B could be in the cards as soon as next season.

Derrek Peters - SP - Santa Cruz, 5 yrs, $50 million with a mutual option.

Then - Peters is a better buy for me than Reed. He has better career stats and superior ratings. This is a 4 year deal as it is highly unlikely that the team will excercise the option, and I would rather have 4 years of Peters than 5 years of Reed.

Now - Peters was 11-12 for a Santa Cruz team that won its division. He finished with an ERA of 3.95 and a WHIP of 1.31.

Philip Colin - SP - Durham Tar Heels, 5 yrs, $62.5 million with a team option on the last year

Then - This is basically a 4 year deal for an aging elite SP coming off of winning the AL Cy Young. Colin should be a #1 SP for 2 of the 4 years, and contribute for another year, maybe two. I am biased, but this guy is coming off of a Cy Young, has three WS Rings, and is a six-time all-star. I'll take my chances with some dead money four seasons from now.

Now - Colin went 18-9 for a Tar Heel team that won its division for the first time since Season 15. He had an ERA of 3.45 and a WHIP of 1.25.

Alex Encarnacion - RP - Buffalo, 2 years, $10 million

Then - Signings like this one make Buffalo one of the elite teams in the league. Encarnacion is very good. His durability is a little low, but every other rating screams top notch reliever. The career numbers are distorted a bit by his one year in Colorado, but he should thrive in Dunn Tire Park. A very good signing.

Now - Encarnacion saves 35 of 45 opportunities for a playoff-bound Buffalo squad. He had an ERA of 3.59 and a WHIP of 1.20. He was an all-star and finished 5th in the race for NL Fireman of the Year.

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

MVP Analysis - Win Shares

AL -

If you are a loyal reader, nerd, or both. You will remember a post discussing a concept called "win shares" that attempts to value players based upon the amount of wins that they generated for their team above the average player. If you are interested in the methodaology, the post is called "HOF Positional Players Win Shares" and appeared on 1/19/11.

I took each of the candidates and have the follwoing information.


For defense, it is a bit more subjective. Basically you value a player's worth in the field relative to an "average" player at that position using plus plays, fielding percentage, and other defensive statistics. Since the "average player" is worth 0 wins over .500, and since the "average player" will not always be able to be an average SS or CF, positional adjustments must come into play. Stolen bases and stolen base attempts are also used.

AL

In Season 19, the average AL player batted .267, hit doubles on 15.5% of their hits, triples on 1.5% of their hits, homers on 14.4% of their hits, and walks on 8.3% of their plate appearances.

Here are the results:

1. Clinton Clifton - 4.99 games
2. Wendell Reed - 4.75 games
3 Jesus Pineda - 4.67 games
4. Jonathan Gload - 4.21 games
5. Henry Wise - 3.93 games

(note: the system does not have a good way of dealing with catchers so Clifton could be overrated. or underrated, for that matter)

NL

In Season 19, the average NL player batted .264, hit doubles on 15.5% of their hits, triples on 1.67% of their hits, homers on 13.3% of their hits, and walks on 8.1% of their plate appearances.

Here are the results:

1. Louis Spence - 5.01
2. Louie Delgado - 4.73
3. Luis Morales - 4.11
4. Carson Hardy - 3.20
5. Ken Daly - 2.97

Final Weekly Rankings

1. Cincinnati Redlegs (111-51) Prev #1 - The two-time defending champs solidify their spot att he top with an impressive 16-6 run to end the season. They finished with the best expected win percentage and best run differential in the Majors. They ended up 1st in batting, 3rd in pitching, and 11th in fielding. Run differential +379

2. Los Angeles Hollywoods (115-47) Prev #2 - LA barely holds off a hard-charging Houston for the top spot in the NL. They finished with the best record in the ML, but were third in both run differential and expected win percentage to Cincy and Houston. They ended up 6th in batting, 1st in pitching, and below average in fielding. Run differential +312

3. Houston Hangovers (109-53) Prev #3 - Houston made a strong push for #2, matching Cincy for a league best 16-6 to end the season. They finished with the best NL run differential and expected win percentage. The also ended as the 5th best batting team, 2nd best pitching team, and 5th best fielding team. Run differential +316

4. Montreal Garde Imperial (102-60) Prev #4 - Montreal went 14-8 to solidify their grasp on the #4 spot. They won 2 of 3 from both Boston and Cincy but lost 3 of 4 to Durham. They ended with the 2nd best batting unit, 4th best pitching staff, and only an average fielding squad. Run differential +310

5. Durham Tar Heels (99-63) Prev #7 - Durham was the big mover on the week, climbing two spots on the strength of a 15-7 week. They took 3 of 4 from Montreal, 2 of 3 from Philly, and 2 of 3 from Boston. They finished with a batting unit ranked 4th, a pitching staff ranked 12th, and a fielding squad ranked 1st. Run differential +230

6. Boston Tea Partiers (98-64) Prev #8 - Boston matches rival Durham with a two spot climb going 14-8 on the week. They swept Philly, lost 2 of 3 to Montreal, and lost 2 of 3 to Durham. They ended 3rd in batting, 13th in pitching, and 7th in fielding. Run differential +201

7.Philadelphia Bacharach Giants (97-65) prev #5 - Philly drops two spots as a result of a dismal 10-12 finish that sees them 1 game out of a playoff spot. They were swept by Santa Cruz and Boston and lost 2 of 3 to Durham. They ended 7th in Batting, 6th in Pitching, and 6th in Fielding. Run differential +212

8. Rochester Red Wings (100-62) Prev #6 - Rochester limps into the playoffs with an 11-11 record to end the season, losing 3 of 4 to LA in the process. They finished 11th in batting, 7th in pitching, and 2nd in fielding. Run differential +144

9. Chicago Black Sox (90-72) Prev #9 - A 9-13 week sees the Sox into the playoffs on a sour note. They were swept by Honolulu and lost 2 of 3 to both Hartford and Buffalo. They finished the season ranked 13th in batting, 11th in pitching, and 10th in fielding. Run differential +110

10. Buffalo Bisons (88-74) Prev NR - A 12-10 week is just enough for Buffalo to re-enter the rankings after a one week absence. They lost 3 of 4 to Houston but swept Cleveland and took 2 of 3 from Chicago. They finished ranked average in batting, 5th in pitching, and 13th in fielding. Run differential + 96

Dropped Cleveland Wahoos - Prev #10

Monday, March 14, 2011

S1-S10 All-decade Closer

Here are the candidates:

Felipe Encarnacion

Awards -

All-Star Appearances - 4
Fireman of the Year - 1
World Series Rings - 0

Stats (S1-S10)

Saves - 167
Save Percentage - 79%
K's - 366

Averages (Career)

ERA - 3.85
WHIP - 1.34

Andy Jefferson

Awards -

All-Star Appearances - 3
Fireman of the Year - 2
World Series Rings - 1

Stats (S1-S10)

Saves - 143
Save Percentage - 89%
K's - 191

Averages (Career)

ERA - 3.27
WHIP - 1.20

Timo Hall

Awards -

All-Star Appearances - 5
Fireman of the Year - 2
World Series Rings - 1

Stats (S1-S10)

Saves - 227
Save Percentage - 85%
K's - 297

Averages (Career)

ERA - 4.30
WHIP - 1.30

Cesar Almanzar

Awards -

All-Star Appearances - 4
Fireman of the Year - 1
World Series Rings - 0

Stats (S1-S10)

Saves - 211
Save Percentage - 81%
K's - 415

Averages (Career)

ERA - 4.15
WHIP - 1.36

Santiago Henriquez

Awards -

All-Star Appearances - 4
Fireman of the Year - 1
World Series Rings - 1

Stats (S1-S10)

Saves - 193
Save Percentage - 85%
K's - 561

Averages (Career)

ERA - 3.96
WHIP - 1.40

Alvin West

Awards -

All-Star Appearances - 6
Fireman of the Year - 0
World Series Rings - 0

Stats (S1-S10)

Saves - 237
Save Percentage - 83%
K's - 324

Averages (Career)

ERA - 4.19
WHIP - 1.30

Alex Lee

Awards -

All-Star Appearances - 3
Fireman of the Year - 2
World Series Rings - 0

Stats (S1-S10)

Saves - 181
Save Percentage - 78%
K's - 372

Averages (Career)

ERA - 5.19
WHIP - 1.45

Dan Carr

Awards -

All-Star Appearances - 5
Fireman of the Year - 0
World Series Rings - 2

Stats (S1-S10)

Saves - 199
Save Percentage - 87%
K's - 320

Averages (Career)

ERA - 3.83
WHIP - 1.30

Derrin Zimmerman

Awards -

All-Star Appearances - 4
Fireman of the Year - 0
World Series Rings - 0

Stats (S1-S10)

Saves - 233
Save Percentage - 80%
K's - 415

Averages (Career)

ERA - 4.43
WHIP - 1.37

Dale Berkman

Awards -

All-Star Appearances - 3
Fireman of the Year - 0
World Series Rings - 0

Stats (S1-S10)

Saves - 193
Save Percentage - 82%
K's - 471

Averages (Career)

ERA - 3.54
WHIP - 1.29

Announcing S1-S10 All-Decade Starting Pitchers

SP1 - Dave Darr - 13 Votes
SP2 - John Fikac - 11 Votes
SP3 - Rob Branson - 10 Votes
SP4 - Stephen Schourek - 8 Votes
SP5 - Run-off - 6 votes (see below)

Please vote - bold = best in category between the two

Choice 1 - Karl Greenberg

Awards (Seasons 1-10)
All-Star Appearances - 4
Rookie of the Year - 1
Cy Young - 3
Gold Glove - 0
World Series Rings - 2

Stats (Seasons 1-10)
Wins - 144
Strike Outs - 1434

Averages (Career)
ERA - 3.65
WHIP - 1.29

Choice 2 - Wilfredo Veras

Awards (Seasons 1-10)
All-Star Appearances - 5
Rookie of the Year - 1
Cy Young - 0
Gold Glove - 0
Silver Slugger - 0
World Series Rings - 1

Stats (Seasons 1-10)
Wins - 96
Strike Outs - 994

Averages (Career)
ERA - 3.03
WHIP - 1.16