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Thursday, June 23, 2011

Cy Young Analysis - OPS Allowed/WAR

Here's a look at the OPS Allowed for the candidates. The argument is that the only things that a pitcher can truly control are how many people he allows on base, and the slugging percventage of those players that he faces.

The number represents the difference between the average pitcher's OPS allowed, and the candidate's OPS allowec.

For refeencve, Season 19 AL Cy Young winner J.R. Beckett was .224 better than the average AL pitcher, and NL winner Miguel Vazquez was .184 better than the average NL pitcher.

AL

1. Adam Tucker - .236*

2. Jeff Woods - .120

3. Richard Aoki - .081

4. Alexi Terrero - .075

5. Wade Redmond - .069

*Tucker is a reliever, so some may have a problem with how he compares here. But if you are not opposed to voting a releiver as Cy Young, then he would not be a bad choice.

NL

1. Randy Broome - .150

2. Victor Merrick - .124

3. Art Wingo - .121

4. Lorenzo Ordaz - .082

5. Wilson Simas - .040


WAR

AL

1. Tarerro - 7.2
2. Aoki - 5.6
3. Redmond - 5.5
4. Woods - 5.4
5. Tucker - 4.6

NL

1. Broome - 6.2
2. Simas - 4.7
3. Merrick - 4.5
4. Ordaz - 3.8
5. Wingo - 2.7

Tuesday, June 21, 2011

MVP Analysis

AL

Win Shares

1.Benji Neill - 4.91
2. Wendell Reed - 4.51
3. Henry Wise - 4.43
4. Sergio Dupler - 3.30
5. Kenny Evans - 2.78

Wins Above Replacement
1. Benji Neill - 9.5
2. Wendell Reed - 8-9
3. Henry Wise - 7.9
4. Sergio Dupler - 6.5
5. Kenny Evans - 4.8

NL

Win Shares
1. Mack Shields - 3.63
2. Ken Daly - 3.54
3. Orlando Maduro - 3.41
4. Bingo O'Donnell - 2.63
5. Luis Morales - 2.55

Wins Above Replacement
1.Ken Daly - 6.4
2-T. Bingo O'Donnell - 5.8
2-T. Mack Shields - 5.8
4. Luis Morales - 4.5
5. Orlando Maduro - 4.0

Season 21 Top Free Agents (Starting Pitchers)

According to Maddies Team Management and the Season 21 Free Agent Board

1. Bill Elster
Overall Rating - 84
Season 21 Age - 30
W-L - 112-91, 3.83 ERA
Awards - 1-time all star

2. Jeff Woods
Overall Rating - 83
Season 21 Age - 34
W-L - 221-113, 3.83 ERA
Awards - 7-time all star, 1-time gold glove

3. Junior Lopez
Overall Rating - 71
Season 21 Age - 30
W-L - 45-31, 3.98 ERA
Awards - 1-time all star

4. Luis Azocar
Overall Rating - 79
Season 21 Age - 31
W-L - 108-63, 3.94 ERA
Awards - 1-time all star

5. B.C. Vincente
Overall Rating - 75
Season 21 Age - 30
W-L - 107-84, 4.52 ERA
Awards - 3-time all star

Season 21 Top Free Agents (Position Players)

According to Maddies Team Management anf the Season 21 Free Agent Report

1. Zach Page - 106.68 OVL, 72.71 OFF, 33.97 DEF
Overall Rating - 89
Season 21 Age - 30
Position - 3B
Awards - 6-time all star, 2-time gold glove

2. Orlando Maduro - 106.48 OVL, 73.40 OFF, 33.08 DEF
Overall Rating - 83
Season 21 Age - 32
Position - 2B
Awards - 3-time all star, 3-time silver slugger, 1-time gold glove

3. Rafael Soriano - 105.43 OVL, 69.91, 35.52 DEF
Overall Rating - 90
Season 21 Age - 28
Position - SS
Awards - None

4. Keith Roosevelt - 102.74 OVL, 72.20 OFF, 30.54 DEF
Overall Rating - 83
Season 21 Age - 29
Position - CF
Awards - 1-time all-star, 1-time gold glove

5. Clinton Clifton - 101.97 OVL, 78.14 OFF, 23.83 DEF
Overall Rating - 84
Season 21 Age - 33
Position - C
Awards - 10-time all star, 5-time MVP, 10-time silver slugger, 2-time gold glove

LCS Preview

AL

#1 Boston vs. #2 Montreal

Path to the LCS - Boston beat Scottsdale in 5, Montreal beat Philadelphia in 5.

Top 10 - Boston finished at #1, Montreal at #2

Regular Season - Series split 5-5, Montreal +10 Run Differential

Pitching Matchups -

Game 1 - Preston Forster vs. Alexi Terrero

Game 2 - Jeff Woods vs. Victor Sierra

Game 3 - Sammy Iglesias vs. Wade Redmond

Game 4 - TBD
Game 5 - TBD
Game 6 - TBD
Game 7 - TBD

Prediction - This one should go the distance. Boston has the advantage offensivly, but Montreal has the better pitching staff. This may come down to Boston's players being more rested, and something tells me it's time for the Tea Partiers to gat back to the WS - Boston in 7

NL

#5 Honolulu vs. #2 Chicago

Path to the LCS - Honolulu beat Cleveland in 4 and Memphis in 4. Chicago beat Helena in 5.

Top 10 - Honolulu finished as the top ranked NL team at #5, Chicago was second at #6.

Regular Season - Honolulu won 6 of 10 games, with a +15 Run differential

Pitching Matchups

Game 1 - Randy Broome vs. Wascar Franco

Game 2 - Art Wingo vs. Cesar Reyes

Game 3 - Marvin Wilkinson vs. Spud Hughes
Game 4 - TBD
Game 5 - TBD
Game 6 - TBD
Game 7 - TBD

Prediction - This one is also going the distance. Both pitching staffs rely on two aces, and they should be able top cancel each other out. It will come down to offense, and Chicago has the advantage. If Honolulu steals one early, they would be the favorite to sweep in their pitching freindly home field. Honolulu in 7

Monday, June 20, 2011

DPS Game 5

Three series going the distance to see who will join Honolulu.

AL

1. Montreal Garde Imperiale vs. Philadelphia Bacharach Giants

Series Summary - Philly got off to a 1-0 lead and saved their playoff lives by coming from 4 runs down to win game 4.

Pitching Matchups - Sammy Iglesias vs. Benji Rosa

Prediction - Rosa got the win in game 1 but has not had a very good postseason otherwise. Iglesias got the win in Game 2, giving up 3 runs in the process. Offensively, Henry Wise has been a terror with 12 RBI's and an OPS over 2.000. For Philly, Ryan Blake has stood out, but he is now on the DL. I'm taking Montreal in a squeaker, with Wise taking player of the game.

2. Boston Tea Partiers vs. Scottsdale Sidewinders

Series Summary - Boston was on the ropes after games 1 and 3 but has fought back with wins on both occasions.

Pitching matchups - Victor Sierra vs. Sal Clarkson

Prediction - There is no question that the pitching matchup favors Boston. Sierra has been very good and Clarkson has been a disaster. However, the SIM can do crazy things and a gem from Sal is not out of the question. Offensivley, Kelly Hinch has carried the Sidewinders and was 3-4 in Game 2 vs. Sierra. For Boston, Wendell Reed is the key - he has been slumping but had a very good day against Clarkson. My guess is Boston in a shutout with Sierra taking player of the game.

NL

1. Helena Hustle vs. Chicago Black Sox

Series Summary - Chicago got out to a 1-0 lead with an extra innings win and then lost games 2 and 3 before shutting out Helena in game 4.

Pitching Matchups - Ezdra Mateo vs. Cesar Reyes

Prediction - Mateo has yet to face Chicago in the playoffs but got hammered by LA. Reyes got the start in game 2 and went 8 giving up only 3. Offensively, Mack Shields has been very good for Chicago, batting .353. For Helena, Francis Herzog is the key, and they will need him in order to have a chance in this one. I'm taking Helena, with Herzog taking advantage of Reyes' struggles vs. lefties and claiming player of the game.