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Friday, January 6, 2012

Free Agency Day 2

Day 2 is always an odd day in FA. It will have none of the highly contested FA's, but will usually have both some overpays and some steals.

1. Douglas Cust, New York, 3 years $18 million
Analysis - The #9 SP on the market, Cust signed for a very reasonable amount. He does have durability concerns, but this is about right for an SP of his quality.

2. Kenny Evans, Baltimore, 2 years $11.8 million
Analysis - Evans was the 3rd best RF on the market, but the two ahead of him on the st are the #1 and #2 overall position players available. He's a quality player with a career .893 OPS. A move to LF or 1B might be in the cards, but he is a solid #2 or #3 hitter and will perform for the duration of his contract.

3. Junior Ozuna, Kansas City, 2 years $12 million and a no trade
Analaysis - Ozuna is a workhorse. In 4 years in Durham, we went 31-9 with an ERA of 2.92, amazing stats for a Setup guy in a hitters park. A good signing.

4. J.R. Beckett, Kansas City, 3 years $42.6 million
Analysis - The future HOF'r has some gas left in the tank. He is an SP1 type, but his stamina will continue to decline. A steep price to pay, but starting pitching is becoming scarce.

5. Henry Green, Oklahoma City, 2 years $9.6 million
Analysis - Green has been up and down, but he has made 3 all-star appearances in the last 5 seasons. OKC is building a nice team, and Green should be a good contributor.

Thursday, January 5, 2012

Free Agency - Day 1

Day 1 signings are either 1) great deals because no one else is bidding, 2) terrible deals because a team has bid so much more than the others bidding. So which are the following?

1. Chad Clarke, Oklahoma City, 3 years $20.4 million
Summary - Clarke did not appear on the Top SP list, but he compares favoritively to some on the list. He's not a SP1 type, but he will eat innings and has elite stamina, control, and make-up. I think that there are some disappointed teams out there that would have jumped at the chance to sign Clarke to this deal. A good signing.

2. Randy Broome, Detroit, 5 years $34 million
Summary - This one falls into the "wow" category for me, as in "no one else was bidding on this guy?". Broome was #7 on the list and signed for half of what I expected him to sign for. My guess is that mtorab could get a nice prospect if he decided to trade him at any point in this contract, which makes this an excellent deal.

3. Harry Rijo, Oklahoma City, 4 years $23.2 million
Summary - Rijo did not appear on the Top RP list, but is nevertheless a very good, young, durable RP. He has a career ERA of 3.74 and has saved 94 of 123 games. A good signing.

4. Tomas Mesa, Detroit, 4 years $27.2 million
Summary - Mesa was #5 on the RP list and was actually one of my favorite RP's on the market. I'm a big believer in having a stud in the Setup A spot (see Ozuna, Junior), and they don't get much better than Mesa. He will pitch 100 innings and have an ERA under 4, a nice signing.

5. Jose Rodriguez, Fresno, 2 years $10.8 million
Summary - The #1 RP on the board re-signs with the Fire for a modest raise. JoseRod seems to either have an all-star season or go bust, but you can't deny that he has the tools to dominate. A very good signing.

6. Kelly Hinch, Fresno, 4 years $34.4 million
Summary - Fresno throws its hat into the ring for Day 1 winner with this signing. Hinch is a plus 2B and CF defender with a career OPS over .800. He's young and posesses very good make-up, so performing at a high level for the duration of teh contract should not be a problem. Good value.

7. Willie Wheat, Pittsburgh, 1 year $5.6 million
Summary - Wheat appeared at #5 on the preview and, for a one year deal, this is a very good signing. He is still performing at a very high level. Good deal for Pittsburgh.

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Free Agency Preview - Position Players

Top 5 Overall
1. Benji Neill
2. Luis Morales
3. Sergio Dupler
4. Brian Donahue
5. Kelly Hinch

Top 5 Offense
1. Benji Neill
2. Ramon Irabu
3. Sergio Dupler
4. Orlando Calderone
5. Brian Donahue

Top 5 Defense
1. Julio Almanza
2. Al Bianucci
3. Hughie Norton
4. Ivan Pena
5. Gerardo Gomez



Top by Position (as listed in FA Report)
Top Catchers
1. Tuck Winn
2. Felipe Mantalban
3. Clayton Mullin

Top 1B
1. Sergio Dupler
2. Max Marin
3. Pat Day

Top 2B
1. Brian Donahue
2. Kelly Hinch
3. Benj Harang

Top SS
1. Orval Cohen
2. Vic Milton
3. Al Bianucci

Top 3B
1. Andrew Carmona
2. Matty Jennings
3. Jeromy West

Top LF
1. Ed Jones
2. Javy Tejada
3. Lyle Cardona

Top CF
1. George Weaver
2. Pascual Garces
3. Geronimo Lunar

Top RF
1. Benji Neill
2. Luis Morales
3. Kenny Evans

Top DH (Ranked by Offense)
1. Orlando Calderone
2. Hipolito Lopez
3. Wilfredo Perez

Free Agency Preview - RP's

1. Jose Rodriguez
Rating - 87.53
Age - 35
Pluses - durability, control, velocity, gb/fb, pitches 1 and 2
Minuses - production, stamina
Compensation - Type B
Stats - 250 out of 310 saves, 4.24 ERA and 1.46 WHIP
Awards - 2x all-star
Summary - Should be much better than the stats would indicate. Primed for a big year.
Prediction - 3 years, 5 million per year

2. Al Castilla
Rating - 87.17
Age - 34
Pluses - durability, health, control
Minuses - none, vs left and gb/fb could be a little better
Compensation - Type A
Stats - 226 out of 270 saves, 3.87 ERA and 1.27 WHIP
Awards - 4X all-star
Summary - A great RP. Ideal as an innings eating Setup A type.
Prediction - big money. 4 years at 8 million per year

3. Rafael Pujols
Rating - 84.59
Age - 30
Pluses - health, control, velocity, p1 and p2, age
Minuses - vs. rhb, vs rhb, and vs rhb
Compensation - none
Stats - 118 for 141 in saves, 4.87 ERA and 1.51 WHIP
Awards - None
Summary - A great example why maddie's can't be taken as your bible. Vs. RHB is marginal at best, and it can't be undestimated as an important rating
Prediction - 1 year, 2 million per year


4. Felipe Encarnacion
Rating - 84.09
Age - 38
Pluses - makeup, health, control, vs RHB, pitch 1
Minuses - age, only ok vs. LHB
Compensation - Type A
Stats - 502 out of 605 saves, 3.77 ERA and 1.31 WHIP
Awards - 8x all-star, 2x fireman
Summary - An all time great, but he is old. He has one more all-star season left in him, so someone will pay
Prediction - 2 years, 6 million per year

5. Tomas Mesa
Rating - 83.04
Age - 33
Pluses - stamina, makeup, control, velocity, gb/fb, pitch 1
Minuses - only ok splits, temper
Compensation - Type A
Stats - 85-44 record, 3.36 ERA and 1.24 WHIP
Awards - 1x all-star
Summary - highly rated, relatively young, and productive. He should be in line for a big contract.
Prediction - 4 years, 6 million per year

The rest

6. Junior Ozuna
7. Bert Throneberry
8. Andy Jefferson
9. Albie Torres
10. Livan Pascual

Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Free Agency Preview - Starting Pitchers

According to Maddie's Team Management

Starters (stamina > 50)

1. Bernie Pena
Rating - 104.36
Age - 31
Strengths - control, vs. lefties and righties, velocity, gb/fb
Weaknesses - stamina, patience, only 3 pitches
Stats - 99-40, ERA of 3.31 and WHIP of 1.19, OPS allowed of .644
Awards - 2x All-star, 2 WS rings
Compensation - Type A
Summary - Relatively young at 31, with elite vs LHB and vs. RHB. Makeup points to a decline in already suspect stamina. Ideally a tandem starter, but will someone pay him as a starter or closer?
Prediction - 5 years, 15 million per year

2. J.R. Beckett
Rating - 92.86
Age - 36
Strengths - makeup, control , vs lefties and righties
Weaknesses - age, stamina, only two good pitches
Stats - 240-86, 2.98 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, .621 OPS allowed
Awards - 7x All-star, 4x Cy Young, 1 WS ring
Compensation - Type B
Summary - A future HOF'r decimated by a recent injury, Beckett still has enough in the tank to be a top of the rotation sarter for at least 2 seasons. Stamina is declining, but makeup is solid. If signed by team with a good training budget, there is no reason why he can't pitch 3 more years.
Prediction - 3 years, 10 million per year

3. Philip Colin
Rating - 92.26
Age - 38
Strenghts - control, vs. righties, Pitch #1
Weaknesses - patience, only 3 pitches, age
Stats - 278-136, 3.71 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, .684 OPS allowed
Awards - 6 x all-star, 1 Cy Young, 3 WS rings
Compensation - None
Summary - At 38, Colin still remains a very attractive top of the rotation SP. Durham declined his option , so there will be no compensation for signing him. Still has all-star potential, and is really the top SP with good stamina.
Prediction - 3 years, 8 million per year

4. Dallas Singleton
Rating - 90.38
Age - 34
Strengths - control, vs lefties, gb/fb, pitch #1
Weaknesses - health, stamina, patience
Stats - 110-60, 3.64 ERA and 1.27 WHIP, .686 OPS allowed
Awards - 1x all-star, 1 ROY
Compensation - Type B
Summary - A very good lefty with declining stamina, but still young enough to start for three more seasons. Type B compensation, so maybe a little more attractive than others. Could be a steal.
Prediction - 3 years, 7 million per year

5. Willie Wheat
Rating - 89.86
Age - 38
Strengths - control, velocity, vs righties, pitch #1
Weaknesses - age, stamina
Stats - 256-128, 3.76 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, .699 OPS allowed
Awards - 3x all-star, 1 Cy Young, 2 Gold Gloves
Compensation - Type B
Summary - Another very good, aging SP in a market flooded with them. Stamina is still OK and pitching rating live is still very good. RAte of decline is only concern.
Prediction - 2 years, 7 million per year

6. Boots Munson
Rating - 88.33
Age - 35
Strengths - health, patience, control, velocity, gb/fb, pitch #1
Weaknesses - durabilty, vs. lefties, pitches 4 and 5
Stats - 180-125, 4.00 ERA and 1.31 WHIP, .723 OPS allowed
Awards - 2x all-star, 1 WS ring
Compensation - Type A
Summary - A 35 year old SP with a very good pitching line. Stats somewhat skewed by time in Durham, but still a very good SP.
Prediction - 4 years, 7 million per year

7. Randy Broome
Rating - 87.91
Age - 32
Strengths - control, pitch #1, age
Weaknesses - patience, velocity
Stats - 143-75, 3.05 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. .639 OPS allowed
Awards - 3 x all-star, 1 Cy Young
Compensation - Type A
Summary - The 32 year old lefty is primed for a big pay day. He may not be as highly rated as others, but he is what most will look for in an SP. Stats are reflective of playing in Honolulu, but still a very good SP.
Prediction - 5 years, 15 million per year.

8. Junior Lopez
Rating - 85.83
Age - 32
Strengths - control, velocity, health, patience
Weaknesses - durability, durability, and durability
Stats - 52-46, 4.04 ERA and 1.35 WHIP, .716 OPS allowed
Awards - 1x all-star
Compensation - None
Summary - Everything is good except the durability. For that reason, he has only started 19 of his 463 games.
Prediciton - 3 years, 5 million per year

9. Douglas Cust
Rating - 83.76
Age - 33
Strengths - stamina, control, velocity, pitch #1
Weaknesses - durability, gb/fb, only three pitches
Stats - 100-95, 4.35 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, .725 OPS allowed
Awards - 1 all-star, 1 GG, 1 SS
Compensation - Type B
Summary - A 33 year old with excellent stamina, control, and Pitch #1. His durability is questionabl, but otherwise a very good SP.
Prediction - 4 years, 8 million per year

10. Wilfredo Veras
Rating - 83.61
Age - 39
Strengths - stamina, pitch #2, patience
Weaknesses - age, makeup
Stats - 279-102, 3.22 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, .649 OPS allowed
Awards - 7x all-star, 2 x Cy Young, 3 GG, 1 ROY
Compensation - Type A
Summary - Suiters might be deterred by the age and compensation, but he is a future HOF'r with gas left in the the tank.
Prediction - 2 years, 10 million per year