I loooooove winning!

Thursday, September 13, 2012

Cy Young and OPS allowed

Here are the Cy Young candidates and how they rank vs. the average pitcher in their league. I use OPS allowed, which is on base percentage allowed plus slugging allowed. I use this as it really is the only thing that the pitcher has control over - namely, how many people get on base and by which manner they get there.

AL

In the AL is Season 25, the average pitcher had an OPS allowed of .767.

1. Kenneth Crabtree - OPS allowed of .545, or .222 better than average
2. Timothy Crawford - OPS allowed of .597, or .170 better than average
3. Albert Mondesi - OPS allowed of .617, or .150 better than average
4. Rocky Hinch - OPS allowed of .633, or .134 better than average
5. Ezdra Mateo - OPS allowed of .700, or 067 better than average

It looks like either Crabtree or Crawford, depending on your willingness to give it to a reliever.

NL
In the NL in Season 25, the average pitcher had an OPS allowed of .740

1. Hideki Yang - OPS allowed of .578, or .162 better than average
2. Cesar Reyes - OPS allowed of .634, or .106 better than average
3. Francis Adams - OPS allowed of .665, or .075 better than average
4. Edinson Lee - OPS allowed of .718, or .022 better than average
5. Eduardo Cortez - OPS allowed of .723, or .017 better than average

Again, either a reliever (Yang) or an SP (Reyes)

Season 25 MVP - Win Shares

"Win Shares" attempts to value players based upon the amount of wins that they generated for their team above the average player. If you are interested in the methodology, go read the post called "HOF Positional Players Win Shares" that appeared on 1/19/11.

I took each of the candidates and have the following information.

Offense is relatively simple. You take that player's controllable stats (hits, 2b's, 3b's, BB's, HR's) and compare them against the average player in that same division (found on the team stats page).

For defense, it is a bit more subjective. Basically you value a player's worth in the field relative to an "average" player at that position using plus/minus plays, fielding percentage, and other defensive statistics. Since the "average player" is worth 0 wins over .500 for a team, and since the "average player" will not always be able to be an average SS or CF, positional adjustments must come into play. Stolen bases and stolen base attempts are also used.

In Season 25, the average AL player batted .269, hit doubles on 15.5% of their hits, triples on 1.5% of their hits, homers on 13.7% of their hits, and walks on 8.4% of their plate appearances.

In the NL, the average player batted .263, hit doubles on 15% of their hits, triples on 17% of their hits, homers on 12.7% of their hits, and walks on 8.1% of their plate appearances.

Results

AL MVP
1. Henry Wise - 4.39
2. Marshall Devereaux - 3.13
3. Trenidad Trajano - 2.70
4. Davy Moreno - 2.60
5. Alex Limon - 1.06

NL MVP
1. Adam Gose - 4.66
2. Zachrey Betancourt - 4.45
3. Yorman Molina
4. Gregg Fuller - 3.69
5. Benny Rivera - 2.80

Wednesday, September 12, 2012

NL South Draft/IFA Combo

Tampa Bay
Top Draft Pick
SP Dave Darr (active)
Season 4, Round 1, Pick 1
Peak Rating - 87
Stats - 320-141, 3.28 ERA, 1.18 WHIP
Awards - 10 X all-star, 4 x Cy Young, 3 x WS Ring, 2 X Silver Slugger
The best SP that the game has seen. Oh, what bats would do to turn back the clock and stop the previous owner from shipping Darr off to Boston (and then Houston).
Runner-up -Eli Vasquez
Top IFA
SS Ignacio Cruz (retired)
Season 1, $4.1 million
Peak Rating - 82
Stats - .271 BA, .778 OPS, 356 HR's, 1296 RBI's
Awards - 6 x all-star, 1each Gold Glove, Silver Slugger, WS Ring
The franchise has never been a big IFA spender. In his prime, Cruz was a plus defender at SS with very good contact, power, and vs. LHP. He had an awful eye, but was otherwise was among the best SS's to ever play the game.
Runner-up - Felipe Navarro

Houston
Top Draft Pick
C Adam Gose (active)
Season 16, Round 1, Pick 26
Peak Rating - 71
Stats - .328 BA, 1.036 OPS, 195 HR's, 556 RBI's
Awards - 2 x all-star, 2 x silver slugger
Amazing statistic - Houston has never picked below #17 in the first round. For that reason, the pickings were slim, but Gose should have gone much higher. A better DH than Catcher, Gose can flat out rake.
Runner-up - Russ Titan
Top IFA
RF Louie Delgado (active)
Season 8, $17.6 million
Peak Rating - 86
Stats - .293 BA, .962 OPS, 695 HR's, 1889 RBI's
Awards - 6 x all-star, 4 x silver slugger, 2 x MVP, 2 x WS Ring, ROY
Houston has has great success in the IFA market, finding two potential HOF'rs in Delgado and Owen. Delgado has elite power and vs. LHP to pair with above average other ratings.
Runner-up - Esteban Owen

Montgomery
Top Draft Pick
1B Ken Daly(active)
Season 6, Round 1, Pick 29
Peak Rating - 81
Stats - .312 BA, .999 OPS, 805 HR's, 2143 RBI's
Awards - 12 x all-star, 11 x silver slugger, 4 x MVP, 1 ROY
Perhaps the best draft pick of all time, Daly is a legend. Excellent power paired with very good contact and splits and an above average eye.
Runner-up - Naoki Xaio
Top IFA
RF Jesus Ortiz (active)
Season 25, $5.8 million
Peak Rating - 50 (and climbing)
Stats - .290 BA, .813 OPS, 10 HR's, 76 RBI's
Awards - none
Montgomery does not spend money on IFA's, Ortiz will make the majors, but there really wasn't much to choose from.
Runner-up -Jose Galvez

Memphis
Top Draft Pick
SP Jeff Woods(active)
Season 5, Round 1, Pick 1
Peak Rating - 85
Stats - 264-169, 3.88 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
Awards -8 X all-star, 4 x WS Ring, 2 gold gloves, 1 Cy Young
A true #1 SP in his prime, Woods had protypical ratings for an SP. High stamina, control, vs LHB, Velocity, and GB/FB. He also had quality pitches and elite make-up.
Runner-up - Bobby Melfi
Top IFA
C Roberto Mercado (active)
Season 25, $23.3 million
Peak Rating - 50 and climbing
Stats - .349 BA, .993 OPS, 15 HR's, 77 RBI's
Awards - none
Signed just this season, Mercado projects as a Catcher with excellent batting ratings. Should make multiple all-star games and win multiple silver slugger awards.
Runner-up - Louie Tavarez

Tuesday, September 11, 2012

NL East Draft/IFA Combo

Chicago
Top Draft Pick
SP Wascar Franco (active)
Season 12, Round 1, Pick 1
Peak Rating - 84
Stats - 115-60, 3.01 ERA, 1.16 WHIP
Awards - 3 x all-star, 1 Cy Young, 1 WS Ring
This was not an esy choice as there were many good options to choose from. Franco is a true #1 with excellent control and pitches, with above average splits. He is a lefty, which means he can be hit, at times, hard by righties. Regardless, a very good SP that should end his career with over 200 wins.
Runner-up - Kurt Clemens
Top IFA
3B Enrique Vincente (active)
Season 15, $23 million
Peak Rating - 84
Stats - .282 BA, .854 OPS, 268 HR's, 816 RBI's
Awards - 4 x all-star, 2 x silver slugger
Another difficult choice, but for me, this plus defender with excellent contact and power gets the nod. Only 28, Vincente should hit over 500 HR's and knock in over 1500 RBI's.
Runner-up - Juan Vincente

Buffalo
Top Draft Pick
C Phil Iwazaki (retired)
Season 4, Round 1, Pick 23
Peak Rating - 74
Stats - .281 BA, .826 OPS, 567 HR's, 1662 RBI's
Awards - 5 x all-star, 5 x silver slugger, 2 WS Rings
Again a difficult choice, but for where he went in the draft, it has to be Iwazaki. A decent defensive C, he had excellent power to pair with very good vs RHP and eye ratings.
Runner-up - Cory Clark
Top IFA
SP Richard Aoki (active)
Season 3, $8 million
Peak Rating - 83
Stats - 302-247, 3.92 ERA, 1.27 WHIP
Awards - 5 X all-star, 5 X WS Rings
The career leader in many categories (batters faced, games started, K's, losses), Aoki is about as durable and dependable as they come. What he lacked in quality, he more than made up for in quantity. A very good pitcher for a very long time.
Runner-up - Jesus Pineda

Indianapolis
Top Draft Pick
SP Derrek Peters (active)
Season 5, Round 1, Pick 4
Peak Rating - 80
Stats - 253-161, 3.62 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
A craft lefty with excellent stamina and control, Peters was a top of the rotation SP for a long time. Excellent make-up has kept him as a viable starter into his late 30s.
Awards - 8 x all-star, 1 x Cy Young
Runner-up - Yorman Molina
Top IFA
SP Jae-Kuk Hasegawa (active)
Season 10, $8.6 million
Peak Rating - 74
Stats - 112-160, 4.47 ERA, 1.40 WHIP
Awards - NONE
SHOTGUN has never spent on IFA's, so there wasn't much to choose from. Hasegawa is a serviceable SP with very good stamina, control, and pitches.
Runner-up - Juan Romero

Norfolk
Top Draft Pick
1B Brendan Watson (active)
Season 7, Round 1, Pick 27
Peak Rating - 77
Stats - .283 BA, .909 OPS, 594 HR's, 1757 RBI's
Awards - ROY, 2 X all-star
Had a much better career than his awards would suggest. In his prime, had excellent power and eye ratings with decent contact and splits.
Runner-up - Manny Ramsey
Top IFA
CL Ricardo Samuel(retired)
Season 2, $5.5 million
Peak Rating - 75
Stats - 239 saves, 3.80 ERA, 1.27 WHIP
Awards - 4 X all-star, 1 WS ring, 1 Fireman
Another team that does not spend heavily om IFA's. Samuel was a very good closer in his prime - with >90 control and vs RHB.
Runner-up - Edinson Lee

Monday, September 10, 2012

Final Rankings

1. Kansas City Crusaders (106-42) Prev #1 - Clinched the North and has a 2 game lead on stubborn Honolulu for the #1 overall NL seed.

2. Boston Massacre (86-51) - Prev #3 - Clinched the AL East and has a 1 game lead over Jacksonville for the #1 seed.

3. Jacksonville TIMUCUANS (87-50) - Prev #2 - Clinched the AL South and is 1 game back of Boston for the #1 and can be no worse than a #2 seed.

4. Honolulu Tropics (92-45) - Prev #7 - Clinched the NL West and will be no worse than the #2 overall seed in the NL. Only 2 back of KC for #1.

5. St. Louis Cardinals (90-64) - Prev #8 - Up by three games in the AL West and four games for the #3 overall seed. Has clinched a playoff berth regardless.

6. Chicago Black Sox (88-66) - Prev #6 - Clinched the NL East and is tied with Tampa for the #3 seed and non-KC side of the bracket.

7. Montreal Garde Imperiale (86-68) - Prev #10 - Clinched the AL North and has a chance for the #3 seed (only 4 games back of St. Louis)

8. Oklahoma City Falcons (86-68) - Prev #9 - At best a Wild Card #1 in the AL. Still can miss the playoffs, but it would be extremely unlikely.

9. Fresno Fire (87-67) - Prev #5 - Three games behind St. Louis in the AL West, Fresno has a magic number of 1 (FRE wins or SAL losses).

10. Tampa Bay Bats (88-66) - Prev #7 - 3 games up in the South over a (still) hard charging Houston squad. Clinched a playoff berth, but still plenty to fight for.

Just Missed
Helena (clinched - WC1 or WC2)
Houston (Magic number of 1 (HOU wins or MNT losses)