I loooooove winning!

Monday, December 9, 2013

Rankings - Part Deux

1. Salt Lake City Mormons
2. Durham Tar Heels
3. Boston Massacre
4. Pittsburgh Partymen
5. Houston Hangovers
6. Honolulu Tropics
7. Philadelphia Bacharach Giants
8. Helena Hustle
9. Kansas City
10. Vancouver Otters

Monday, November 25, 2013

Biweekly Rankings

Yes, biweekly means once every two weeks. But, of course, it also means twice per week. To make it clear, these rankings will appear once every two weeks, or, ahem, biweekly. Now that that is settled! For the newbs, the rankings are based on a combination of record, expected win percentage, and run differential. On to it!

1. Honolulu Tropics (29-12) - Owners of the best record, expected win percentage, and run differential in the league. 8-5 vs. the Top 10
2. Salt Lake City Mormons (27-14)  - The AL's top record, expected win percentage, and run differential. 7-6 vs. the Top 10
3. Houston Hangovers (29-12) - Tied with Honolulu for the best record in the majors, and 3rd in both expected win percentage and run differential. 8-6 vs. the Top 10
4. Pittsburgh Partymen (26-15) - Owners of the 4th best record in the majors. 5th in both expected win percentage and run differential. 6-7 vs. the Top 10
5. Boston Massacre (23-18) - 4th in both expected win percentage and run differential, but only 8th in overall record.  5-4 vs. the Top 10
6. Vancouver Otters (26-15) - The owners of the 4th best record in the league are playing above expectations. 6th in run differential and 7th in expected win percentage. 5-3 vs. the Top 10
7. Burlington Worm Burners (24-17) - The NL's 4th best team is 6th in expected win percentage, 7th in overall record, and 8th in run differential. 5-7 vs. the Top 10
8. Durham Tar Heels (22-19) - Lagging in overall record (10th), but 7th in run differential and 8th in expected win percentage. 6-9 vs the Top 10
9. Kansas City Evil Empire (25-16) - Playing above expectations - 6th in overall record, but 10th in both expected win percentage and run differential. 5-8 vs the Top 10
10. Montreal Garde Imperiale (23-18) - Our favorite French-Canadians are back, checking in at 8th in overall record and 9th in both expected win percentage and run differential. 5-6 vs. the Top 10

Just Missed
Toledo
Chicago
Helena

Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Season 30 Preview - NL West

Season 29 Standings
1. Helena 100-62
2. Honolulu 95-67
3. San Francisco 81-81
4. Los Angeles 54-108

Team Previews

Helena
Arrivals - Ralph Jennings (FA), Cody Dye (FA), Itchy Penis (Trade),
Departures - Paulie Fox (FA), Donaldo Segui (FA)
Net Effect - Neutral
Status - Competing
Prediction - Might be the last chance at a World Series before an aging pitching staff breaks down. Solid in all facets and anything less than 1st would be a disappointment.

Honolulu
Arrivals - Rube Swann (Trade), Cesar Reyes (Trade), Paulie Fox (FA), Benito Melian (FA)
Departures - Roger Karl (FA), Frank Zhang (FA), Jeff Ruebel (FA)
Net Effect - neutral
Status - competing
Prediction - Another squad getting on in years. Anything less than 2nd would be surprising and anything less than a playoff berth would be a disappointment. One bad season and this franchise could start to rebuild.

San Francisco
Arrivals - Rafael Escobar (FA), Mac Knott (FA), Pedro Maduro (FA)
Departures - Adam Tucker (Trade)
Net Effect - Positive
Status - Competing, one year away?
Prediction - One of the more active teams in Free Agency, but still in a very tough division. They have a shot at a Wild Card, but between Honolulu, Helena, and the NL North, the chance is remote.

Los Angeles
Arrivals - Bubbles Judd (FA), Albert Nelson (FA), Tyson Lollar (FA), Rabbit Floyd (Waivers)
Departures - Ralph Jennings (FA)
Net Effect - Positive
Status - Evil Empire 2.0
Prediction - Last place in a difficult division

MVP Watch - Gary Woodward (if he moves from 2B), Don ChenZachrey Betancourt
Cy Young Watch - Sammy "Gramps" Iglesias

ROY Watch - one of LA guys, if promoted

Monday, November 18, 2013

Season 30 Preview - NL South

Season 29 Standings
1. Montgomery - 83-79
2. Tampa - 79-83
3. Houston - 77-85
4. Memphis - 72-90

Team Previews

Montgomery
Arrivals - Mateo Valbuena (FA),
Departures - Geraldo Mendez (Trade), Quinton Trammell (Trade), Rube Swann (Trade), Ivy Latham (Trade)
Net Effect - Negative
Status - Re-building?
Prediction - First to worst? Probably not, but they have begun to re-build and are sure to win less games in season 30. 3rd is my guess as they continue to sell.

Santa Fe (Tampa)
Arrivals - Don Iwamura (Trade), Luis Lopez (FA), Timothy Bryant (FA)
Departures - Ray Wallace (FA), Julio Lopez (FA), Sammy Gandarilla (FA), Gustavo Melo (FA)
Net Effect - neutral, maybe slightly positive
Status - competing
Prediction - A very good team on paper, but bats is cursed by the blog and picked on by WIS so you never know. Should make the playoffs, as long as they are injury free.

Houston
Arrivals - Yorman Molina (Trade), Davy Moreno (Trade), Eugene Holmes (Trade)
Departures - none
Net Effect - positive
Status - competing
Prediction - A battle with Santa Fe for 1st, but I like their pitching staff a little more so I'll give them the edge. Plus, bats is bound to have multiple injuries.

Memphis
Arrivals - none
Departures - Rabbit Floyd (Released),
Net Effect - neutral
Status - re-building
Prediction - 4th and another season of building for the future.



MVP Watch - Midre CervantesDavy Moreno
Cy Young Watch - Willis Floyd

ROY Watch - Dwight Charlton

Friday, November 15, 2013

Season 30 Preview - NL East

Season 29 Standings
1. Wichita - 81-81
2. Buffalo - 75-87
3. Scranton - 68-94
4. San Juan - 65-97

Team Previews

Burlington (Wichita)
Arrivals - Bernie Pena (FA), Jared Williams Jr. (FA), Damian Peavy (FA), Gustavo Melo (Trade), Geraldo Mendez (Trade)
Departures - Jae-Kuk Hasegawa (FA), Ed Earley (FA),
Net Effect - Positive
Status - Bought a Pitching Staff
Prediction - 1st place in a relatively weak division. 2 or 3 players away from making some noise in the playoffs.

Buffalo
Arrivals - none
Departures - Gregory Stevenson (FA), Miguel Guerrero (FA), Vic Beltran (Released
Net Effect - negative
Status - starting to rebuild
Prediction - With a payroll of $100 million and only $5 million committed for next season, meece is primed to make a move in IFA to begin the re-build in earnest. 3rd or 4th is likely.

Pawtucket (Scranton)
Arrivals - Magglio Armas (FA), Charley Roberts (FA)
Departures - Don Iwamura (Trade), Mark Wanatabe (Trade), Jake Orie (Trade), Ed Hundley (FA)
Net Effect - negative
Status - rebuilding
Prediction - This is actually a pretty good team, despite the ongoing re-build. 2nd place should be within reach, but a .500 record might not be in the cards.

Chicago (San Juan)
Arrivals - Diego Diaz (promoted), Bob Sveum (promoted),
Departures - Lee Crosby (FA)
Net Effect - negative
Status - rebuilding/competing
Prediction - Arbitration clock be damned, schmidthb filled his roster with some decent players but appears to be re-building. If Pawtucket trades some pieces, Chicago has a chance to finish 2nd.

MVP Watch - Gregg FullerTony Esposito
Cy Young Watch - Geraldo Mendez

ROY Watch - Bob Sveum

Thursday, November 14, 2013

Season 30 Preview - NL North

Season 29 Standings
1. Kansas City 108-54
2. Pittsburgh 100-62
3. Cleveland 86-76
4. Fargo 80-82

Team Previews

Kansas City
Arrivals - none
Departures - Timothy Bryant (FA),
Net Effect - negative, but does it matter?
Status - Bored of winning
Prediction - What do you do when you get tired of winning with 25 guys? You win with 20. No matter the number -  this team will win the division.

Pittsburgh
Arrivals - none
Departures - none
Net Effect - none
Status - in the wrong division for now, but built to last
Prediction - This team could win the majority of the divisions out there and, without doubt, will make the playoffs. KC is just too tough, however, so the season really starts in the Wild Card round.

Cleveland
Arrivals - none
Departures - Yuniesky Johnson (Trade), Wally Lo Duca (FA)
Net Effect - negative
Status - stuck in the middle, rebuilding?
Prediction - 3rd. no better, no worse. A talented team that will be above .500, buy they don't have what it takes to win 100 games. And 100 games is what it would take to finish higher than 3rd. The trade of Johnson signals a shift in strategy. Should be more worried about Fargo getting the second Wild Card than anything else.

Fargo
Arrivals - Quinton Trammell (trade), Raymond Campbell (FA)
Departures - none
Net Effect - positive
Status - competing, but for what?
Prediction - Another talented team in what might be the most talented division in 1530. Should finish over .500, and a shot at the playoffs is not out of the question. But the top two here are just too tough.

MVP Watch - where to begin? so many talented players, but Midre ValentinKen DeRosaFrank Thornton, and Davey Wood are the best from each squad
Cy Young Watch - Kelvin LavarnwayBert KolbGuy Wilson, or Alexi Terrero



ROY Lock (if promoted) - Brennan Alexander or Felipe Nunez

Wednesday, November 13, 2013

AL Playoffs/Awards

AL North Champ - Salt Lake City
AL East Champ - Boston
AL South Champ - Richmond
AL West Champ - Vancouver
AL Wild Card #1 - Durham
AL Wild Card #2 - Philadelphia
DPIS - Durham over Richmond, SLC over Philly
DCS - Boston over Durham, Vancouver over SLC
LCS - Boston over Vancouver

MVP - Ivan Walton
Cy Young - Albert Mondesi
ROY - Napoleon Starr

Season 30 Preview - AL West

Season 29 Standings
1. Vancouver 97-65
2. St. Louis 75-87
3. Colorado 73-89
4. Fresno 69-93

Team Previews

Vancouver
Arrivals - none
Departures - Rickey Frank (FA),
Net Effect - none
Status - Why mess with a good thing?
Prediction -  Frank brought back a roster, almost in full, that made the World Series in Season 29. The scary thing for the rest of the AL? His AAA roster could win over half of its games at the ML level, and 5 of the best will be promoted to the Majors after 20 or so ML games. The favorite for the World Series and a lock for the division championship.

Arizona (St. Louis)
Arrivals - Hughie Baker (trade), Roger Karl (FA), Cesar Rodriguez (FA),
Departures - Ken Locke (FA), Bartolo Santos (FA)
Net Effect - Positive
Status - Competing
Prediction - 2nd place and a winning record are worthwhile goals. Vancouver should prove to be just too tough.

Colorado Springs (Colorado)
Arrivals - Rickey Frank (FA),
Departures - Itchy Penis (Trade)
Net Effect - Fitter, Happier, More Productive
Status - Maintaining
Prediction - 3rd. Not enough to catch Arizona, let alone Vancouver. As much as we all despise it, the only way to win in this game is to sustain a 3-5 season re-build based upon high draft picks and expensive internationals. CSP, like many others,  are stuck in no-man's land - not good enough to win World Series now, not bad enough to win one later. The impending arrival of Abdul Simpson should help, but it won't be enough.

Fresno
Arrivals - Ken Locke (FA),
Departures - Carlos Pena (FA)
Net Effect - Neutral
Status - Re-building
Prediction - 4th. Which, again, is not a bad thing for a re-building squad. Has won exactly 110 games over the past two seasons. Playing by the rules and re-building like a champ!

MVP Watch - One of Vancouver's guys
Cy Young Watch - One of Vancouver's guys

ROY Lock (if promoted) - One of Vancouver's guys

Tuesday, November 12, 2013

Season 30 Preview - AL South

Season 29 Standings
1. Jacksonville 89-73
2. Charlotte 83-79
3. Texas 83-79
4. Mexico City 60-102

Team Previews

Richmond (Jacksonville)
Arrivals - Manny Ramsey (FA), Jesus Bautista (FA),
Departures - Luis Lopez (FA)
Net Effect - positive
Status - pushing for the playoffs
Prediction - They should have enough to win the division, and a marginal improvement over Season 29 should be expected. In a stacked AL, however, advancing in the playoffs should prove to be difficult.

Charlotte
Arrivals - Brant Riggan (FA), R.J. Albaladejo (FA), Maicer Bennett (FA)
Departures - none
Net Effect - positive
Status - one season away?
Prediction - An army of talent awaits in AAA, will they be rushed this season or saved for next? Saved is my guess, so 1st place is out of the question, but 2nd is realistic. Should be a team to watch in Season 31, though.

Jackson (Texas)
Arrivals - Adam Tucker (Trade), Saul Pineda (Trade), Juan Vincente (Trade), Bartolo Santos (FA), Victor Gonzalez (Promoted)
Departures - Angel Morales (Trade), R.J. Albaladejo (FA), Eugene Millwood (FA),
Net Effect - more positive than negative
Status - hanging in there
Prediction - In a division without a "super team", Jackson will be in the hunt if Richmond falters. If the pitching staff can hold up, 2nd place is within reach. In any event, a winning record is expected, but the playoffs are not.

Oklahoma City (Mexico City)
Arrivals - Larry Henley (Trade), Pablo Ramirez (Rule V)
Departures - Esteban Terrero (Trade), Alex Limon (Trade), Davy Moreno (Trade), Jesus Bautista (FA),
Net Effect - negative
Status - rebuilding 101
Prediction - 4th, but that's not bad. A textbook re-build is underway, and OKC have done an amazing job cutting payroll and adding prospects. Anyone looking to re-build should take notes.


MVP Watch - Posiedon LuekeEnrique Vincente
Cy Young Watch - Manny RamseyBrant RigganJuan Vincente

ROY Lock (if promoted) - Bernie Johnson

Monday, November 11, 2013

Season 30 Preview - AL East

Season 29 Standings
1. Boston 110-52
2. Durham 100-62
3. Chicago 68-94
4. Philadelphia 62-100

Team Previews

Boston
Arrivals - Benj Taylor (trade)
Departures - Hughie Baker (trade), Brett Randall (FA)
Net Effect - neutral
Status - World Series or bust
Prediction - An uneventful off-season for the AL East champs. Having hit 110 wins in three of the last four seasons, this threshold is now expected. The division title is likely, but a regression seems overdue.

Durham
Arrivals - Ed Hundley (FA), Kenta Suzuki (Promoted)
Departures - Manny Ramsey (FA), Bernie Pena (FA)
Net Effect - Negative
Status - chasing Boston
Prediction - 2nd place and a Wild Card. Too much talent to miss out, not enough to catch Boston

Philadelphia
Arrivals - Ivy Latham (Trade), Bo Dunham (Trade), Vic Beltran (FA), Chuck Bland (FA)
Departures - none
Net Effect - Positive
Status - at the end of a 5-season re-build, competing
Prediction - 2nd or 3rd, with a good shot at the Wild Card. Boston is too tough and Durham appears to be the better team. Should make the playoffs, though.

Chicago
Arrivals - Lee Crosby (FA), Gregory Stevenson (FA), Carlos Pena (FA)
Departures - Tyson Lollar (FA), Rafael Escobar (FA),
Net Effect - Positive
Status - competing
Prediction - Just not enough pitching to make a run. They could compete in another division, but the East is just too tough. Anythig other than 4th would be a surprise.

Cy Young Watch - Albert MondesiHick ManningCarson Stuart
MVP Watch - Barry PerryYusmeiro Durazo,

Season 30 Preview - AL North

Season 29 Standings
1. Salt Lake City 109-53
2. Toledo 86-76
3. Cincinnati 66-96
4. Montreal 58-104

Team Previews

Salt Lake City
Arrivals - Esteban Terrero (trade), Alex Limon (trade), Cecil Lee (promoted)
Departures - Benj Taylor (traded), Yorman Molina (traded), Larry Henley (traded), Bo Dunham (traded), Norman Carson (FA), Brant Riggan (FA)
Net Effect - neutral, maybe slightly negative
Status - competing for a World Series with an eye on rebuilding
Prediction - 1st
Best record in franchise history and 2nd best in the AL, SLC lost to Vancouver in the DCS. Most teams competing for a World Series don't trade a top SP, but they did just that. Still, there is enough talent here to win the division easily.

Toledo
Arrivals - Donaldo Segui (FA)
Departures - Raymond Campbell (FA)
Net Effect - neutral
Status - Competing
Prediction - With very little turnover, Toledo is going with the same squad that won 86 games last season. A dramatic increase in unlikely, so a division title is likely to be out of reach. 2nd or 3rd.

Cincinnati
Arrivals - none
Departures - Napoleon Starr (Rule V)
Net Effect - negative
Status - perpetually rebuilding
Prediction - With the loss of one of the best young players in the game and seven straight seasons of bad baseball, the fans of this once proud and successful squad are getting restless. Help is on the way, but a 4th place finish this season is all but guaranteed.

Montreal
Arrivals - Napoleon Starr (Rule V), Frank Zhang (FA), Eugene Millwood (FA), Julio Lopez (FA), Mark Wanatabe (Trade), Yuniesky Johnson (Trade), Jake Orie (Trade)
Departures - Saul Pineda (Trade),
Net Effect - positive
Status - Worst to First?
Prediction - Any team that spends that kind of cash on Free Agents must not be ignored. Have they done enough to catch SLC? The blog says "no". Have they done enough to catch Toledo? The blog says "yes", but it won't be enough for a playoff spot.

Cy Young Watch - Frank Zhang
MVP Watch - Tony CuetoNapoleon StarrIvan Walton
ROY Lock - Napoleon Starr

Friday, November 1, 2013

Free Agency Day 3

Big money day!

1. Maicer Bennett SP, Charlotte, 5 years $90 million
Analysis  - Holy cow! This might be the record contract for a player yet to throw an ML inning. It just goes to show you what a rarity he was - only 24 and still improving. He should deliver an ERA around 4.00 and a WHIP around 1.35, good but not ace stuff.

2. Eugene Millwood, SP, Montreal, 5 years $50 million with a mutual option.
Analysis - Not bad value, but still a bunch on money for an SP that won't be an ace. He is young, though, and will produce many, many quality innings.

3. Timothy Bryant, 3B, Santa Fe, 5 years $84.9 million with a player option
Analysis - Not good enough defensively for SS, Bryant is an ideal 3B. Career .292 average with an OPS of .848

4. Gregory Stevenson, 2B, Chicago (AL), 5 years $47.5 million with  a $10 million bonus.
Analysis - A good glove at 2B, Stevenson crushes LHPs. Career average of .261 and OPS of .818 reflective of relatively weak vs RHPs.

5. Frank Zhang, SP, Montreal, 5 years $77 million with a mutual option
Analysis - Montreal finishes its spending spree with another expensive SP. Zhang is a better pitcher than Millwood, and only a year older. he should produce for the duration of the contract

Thursday, October 31, 2013

Free Agency Day 2

Day Two sees some battles won, but the big money deals come in Day 3.

1. Manny Ramsey SP, Richmond, 5 years $33.7 million
Analysis - Ramsey is the owner of 145 wins and a 3.91 ERA and is only 33 years old. He has shown a slight ratings drop, but with good budgeting, he could be productive at the top of the rotation for 3-4 seasons.

2. Lee Crosby RF, Chicago (AL), 5 years $39.3 million with a $3.5 million bonus
Analysis - Only 28, Crosby was sure to be one of the highest paid FA's. He is good, but does not play a skill position and owns a career OPS of only .773. However, you can plug him into the line-up and forget him for 162 games due to his excellent durability and health. His ratings are better than his production, could be a candidate for a breakout season.

3. Pedro Maduro, SP, San Francisco, 4 years $26 million
Analysis - 34 but an owner of very good intangibles, Maduro can man down a #3 SP spot for the duration of the contract. The problem is that he doesn't do well vs RHB's, not to mention that is owns a career ERA close to 5.

4. Eugene Holmes LF, Houston, 5 years $34.1 million with a 500k bonus.
Analysis - The bonus must have been what did it! A power hitter with an average HR track record, Holmes is another plug and forget player. Not an ideal RF but can play in a pinch, he is a solid #5 hitter that could rebound from a sub-par season.


Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Free Agency Day 1

Day one of free agency is typically when guys that only have one offer pull the trigger. That. or one team significantly outbids the others.

1. Rafael Escobar -  San Francisco, 4 years, $29.6 million
Analysis - Defensively a COF or marginal 2B, Escobar is a career .281 hitter with an OPS just above .800. Only 31, Escobar should maintain his average production for the duration of the contract. Power is not his game and he has an excellent make-up rating.

2. Bernie Pena - Burlington, 2 years, $11 million with a no-trade
Analysis - This is, in essence, a one year deal for a very, very good RP. 150 wins and a career ERA of 3.45

3. Brant Riggan Charlotte, 5 years $40 million - A whole lotta' cash for a 36 year old SP. This will be a good deal for years 1 and 2, with years 3-5 prviding little bang for the buck.

4. Rickey Frank - Colorado Springs, 3 years, $19.5 million - This guy is a rarity in this game - an elite defensive SS with an above average bat. Only 29 and an owner of good durability and health, this should be a very good deal for Colorado Springs.

Tuesday, October 29, 2013

Monday, July 22, 2013

Blog's HOF Ballot

1. Francis Herzog - CF,  Buffalo - A rare combination of defense in offense in a tough position to find them both, Herzog appeared in seven all star games and won nine silver sluggers in Center. A career .289 batter with an OPS of .960, he hit 468 homers and batted in 1393 runs. Voted the best CF in the first 25 years of 1530 Homer
2. Louis Spence - LF, Cleveland - Along with Neill, Spece was one of the best hitters of his era. 12 all star appearance to go along with 7 silver sluggers. A career .317 average and OPS of .943. He hit 329 homers, batted in 1257, and scored 1736 runs.
3. Benji Neill - LF, Fargo - Voted by the owners as the Season 10-20 LF, Neill was among the best pure hitters in our history. He appeared in 9 all-star games, won two silver sluggers, and one gold glove. A career .310 batter with an OPS of .919, he hit 269 homers with 1157 RBI's and 1460 runs.
4. Willie Wheat- SP, Durham - A fringe candidate, but the best of the SP's on this season's ballot. A career record of 270-138 with 4 all star appearances and 1 Cy Young.
5. Jeff Woods - SP, Montreal - Another fringe candidate, but still a good one. An amazing 8 all stars appearances and 4 rings. Career record of 274-188.

Hall of Fame - Pitchers

Current HOF'rs

1 - Rob Branson - OPS allowed of .632 over 15 Seasons, while league average was .786 over same period - .154 better than average
2. J.R. Beckett, OPS allowed of .634 over his 18 seasons, while league average was .770 over same period - .136 better than average
3. Wilfredo Veras - OPS allowed of .659 over his 20 seasons, while average pitcher was .768 over the same period - .109 better than average


4. Dave Darr, OPS allowed of .652 over his 21 seasons, while average was .758 over same period - .106 better than average
5. Philip Colin, OPS allowed of .681 over his 23 seasons, while league average was .779 over same period - .98 better than average
6. John Fikac - OPS allowed of .689 over his 17 seasons, while average pitcher was .783 over the same period - .94 better than average
Average SP HOF'r - OPS allowed of 1.04 OPS allowed better than average
7. Jay Burnitz - OPS allowed of .714 over his 20 seasons, while the average  pitcher was .778 over the same period - .64 better than average

I have argued in previous posts, for SP's, that 1.00 OPS better than average is a no doubt Hall of Famer. Anything less must take other factors into consideration. 

Hold-over candidates

Miguel Vazquez - OPS allowed of .701 over his 24 seasons, while average was .773 over the same period - .72 better than average
Willie Wheat - OPS allowed of .697 over his 20 seasons, while average was .768 over same period - .71 better than average. 
Richard Aoki, OPS allowed of .729 over his 24 seasons, while league average was .769 over same period - .60 better than average
Heinie Conigliaro, OPS allowed of .722 over his 20 seasons, while league average was .779 over same period - .57 better than average
Ramon Chen, OPS allowed of .717 over his 21 seasons, while league average was .783 over same period - .66 better than average



Newbies
Jeff Woods - OPS allowed of .707 over his 20 seasons, while league average was .768 over the same period - .61 better than average

Hall Of Fame - Position Players Win Shares

Win Shares - Position Players

Those in the Hall
1. Charles Lawrence - 17 Seasons, 95.56 wins, 5.62 per season
2. Milton Simmons - 18 Seasons, 71.66 wins, 3.98 per season
3. Eddie Reese - 15 Seasons, 64.51 wins, 4.30 per season
4. Adam Lansing - 12 Seasons, 53.59 wins, 4.47 per season
5. Clinton Clifton - 16 seasons, 63.12 wins, 3.95 per season
6. Rollie Walker - 14 Seasons, 53.16 wins, 3.54 per season
7. Esteban Owen - 17 seasons, 47.75 wins, 2.80 per season
8. Juan Johnson - 17 Seasons, 43.81 wins,  2.58 per season
9. Brent Sabel - 16 Seasons, 42.09 wins, 2.63 per season
10. Wesley Graves - 15 Seasons, 34.64 wins, 2.38 per season
11. Rogers Torrealba - 15 Seasons, 31.49 wins, 2.09 per season

Hold-over candidates
Francis Herzog - 16 seasons, 58.17 wins, 3.64 per season
Sergio Dupler - 15 Seasons, 38.64 wins, 2.58 per season
Phil Iwazaki - 16 Seasons, 19.7 wins, 1.23 per season
Brendan Watson - 14 seasons, 19.65 wins, 1.40 per season
Ignacio Cruz - 13 Seasons, 11.7 wins, .9 wins per season

Newbies
Benji Neill - 15 Seasons, 50.29 wins, 3.35 per season
Louis Spence - 17 S3easons, 58.33 wins, 3.43 per season


Thursday, July 18, 2013

Free Agency Part Deux

1. Dean Gilbert 3B, Tampa Bay, 5 years $40 million with a team option
Analysis - An ideal defensive 3B, Gilbert also has some pop (career OPS of .836). Strong make-up and patience, but he should still see a decline throughout his contract as he is already 33. As some of the other deals that we have seen, a good deal today and next season, but probably one that bats will regret come season 31.

2. Wascar Franco SP, Helena, 5 years $61 million
Analysis - Franco is a former Cy Young and still one of the best SP's in the game, but this is a huge deal for a 35 year old. Elbow injuries in S23 and S24 dropped his ratings, but he has remained steady ever since. But he's 35 and his make-up is only so-so. Although SPs with career OPS allowed under .633 don't grow on trees. Good deal for this year and next, likely a poor one thereafter unless, of course, Helena can get a ring or two.

3. Louis Melville SP, Helena, 4 years $44 million
Analysis - Helena is going for broke. Melville is a solid pitcher with the make-up to play into his late 30s. The problem is that he is already in his late 30s. My guess is that a sharp decline begins next season, but will he be able to help deliver a ring to make it all worth while?

4. Yunel Figureoa SS, Honolulu, 2 years $12.6 million
Analysis - A 31 year old 3-time all star that can field. Career OPS of .741 very good considering the quality of the glove. The type of player that makes a good team better, rather than a bad team good.

5. Al Vazquez, 3B, Wichita, 2 years $7.2 million
Analysis - This is my type of deal! Great production expected for a reasonable amount. Pick-ups like these are plentiful after the Rule V, happy shopping!

Tuesday, July 16, 2013

Top 10 Trade Pieces in the ML

I've seen this done for NBA players. You take all players at the ML level, consider all factors, and arrive at a list that identifies the most valuable trade assets in the game.
Since there are so many players, I needed to come up with some basic rules to narrow the candidates.

Rule One - All else being equal, an SP is more valuable than any other position.
Rule Two - All else being equal, an RHP is more valuable than an LHP.
Rule Three - RP's are not up for consideration.
Rule Four - A player that is young and controllable is more desirable than a player that is old even if the younger player is inferior.
Rule Five - A player 33 or older should not make this list. Here is my list for the Top 10 (I threw the top ML-ready AAA guys in for fun). In dramatic, countdown style......

10. Albert Mondesi SP, Boston - The best SP in the game, but relatively expensive and 31 years old. He is controllable for the next 5 seasons, and the contract is actually a good one for the value delivered. 164-66 with an ERA of 2.71 and a no doubt Hall of Famer. If I could choose one player for one season, it would be Mondesi. But, compared to the rest on this list, he is not as valuable on the trade market.

9. Enerio Duran, SP, Houston - A 23 year old RHP SP, Duran is 16-17 with an ERA of 3.73. Compares favorably, in my opinion, to teammate Ross, although he will hit arbitration sooner, which is why he is lower of the list. Should be a big part of Houston's impending dynasty.

8. Tony Esposito, SS, Wichita - While likely not ready for another season, Esposito could step in today and produce at all-star type season at 3B. A former 1st round pick. Much higher on this list if he can hit projections and play a solid SS.

7. Guy Wilson, SP, Pittsburgh - The 24 year old righty is still one season from arbitration. He's had some success so far and, with a makeup of 94, will likely hit his projections.

6. Homer Ross, SP, Houston - A 23 year old RHP with #1 stuff. Should debut after 25 games this season and be a star. Only concern is that he is relatively weak vs. LHB, but it's a minor concern.

5. Carson Stuart, SP, Philadelphia - Only 21, Stuart should make his ML debut next season. Solid projections, but he's a LHP that is relatively weak against RHBs. That being said, he's a young SP already at an 80 overall. He's valuable.

4. Ken DeRosa, RF, Boston - Tough call to drop him below others on this list, but DeRosa has started to cost real money this season and, at the max, could leave after seven more seasons. So the question is would you rather have DeRosa for 7 or  (spoiler alert) Tony Cueto for 10? Give me Cueto and I'll pray that I don't face DeRosa too often.

3. Tony Cueto, RF, Toledo -  Slated to make his debut this season, Cueto is 24 and controllable for the next 10 seasons. While not a true power hitter, he projects as one of the best hitters that 1530 has ever seen.  A lock for ROY, he should make the next 10 all-star games as long as he is surrounded with some decent players.

2. Ivan Walton, RF, Salt Lake City - Quite simply the best position player in the game. Only 26 and yet to hit arbitration, Walton has one MVP under his belt and led the league in RBI's last season. Walton is also a good bet to never test free agency due to his high patience rating.

1. Felipe Navarro, SP, Vancouver - If I were starting a team today, and had to pick one player currently in the ML to start it with, it would be Navarro. He's young (23), right handed, controllable for the next eight seasons, and very, very good. His relatively low stamina would be my only concern, but I would take him here without hesitation.

Argue away!

FA Signings so far.....

1. Randall Scott, RP, Honolulu, 4 years $39.2 million
Analysis - Quite simply one of the best RP's in the game. He's 34, but has shown very little regression to date. He's destined to lose some zip on his fastball, but he should still be able to thrive in Honolulu.

2. Pete Stein, C, San Francisco, 5 years $39.7 million
Analysis - Stein is one of the better catchers in the game with a good combination of defensive and offensive skills. Only 28, he should be able to man the plate for all five years of his deal. A good pick-up.

3. Jimmie Phillips, 2B, Jacksonville, 5 years $38.5 million with a team option
Analysis - Phillips is one of the better lead-off guys in the game, and a plus defender at 2B to boot. A sure bet to score over 100 runs for a high-powered JAX offense. A good signing for this year and next, but he will likely hit a major decline and be a drag on payroll for the last two years.

4. Edgar Alvarado, CF, Helena, 3 years $24 million
Analysis - Marginally defensive, Alvarado compensated with a plus bat. Only 29, so a three year deal is perfect. A little rich, but Alvardo is a nice player.

5. Max Ozuna, CF, Honolulu, 3 years $21.5 million
Analysis - Big spending Honolulu snags one of the best defensive CF's in the game. The 2-time all star is 31 and should be able to roam CF for all three seasons.

6. Jonathan Porcello, SP, Tampa, 5 years $31.5 million with a team option
Analysis - A good SP and a very good deal for the first year. But there will be a time to pay the piper, and it will likely come starting in Season 4 of the deal.

7. Don Chen, LF, Honolulu, 3 years $28 million with a team option.
Analysis - Honolulu sees his window, and it starts this season. Chen is very, very good. But his power has started to decline and he is unlikely to touch his career averages from this point forward.

Wednesday, July 10, 2013

Welcome to Season 28

Congratulations to lifer neilg on his World Series, and welcome to jagr and kruther! All records have been updated and you can find them on the left side of the blog.

Wednesday, May 22, 2013

Best IFA in a long time

A position player IFA just hit the market, and at an 88 overall, he should make an immediate impact and be a candidate for the HOF. Here's my analysis of where he will play ball:

Out (<15 br="" budgeted="" million=""> Helena
Salt Lake City
Jacksonville
Honolulu
Tampa Bay
Durham
Atlanta
Scranton
San Francisco
Montgomery
Salem
Indy

Out (Already spent budget)
Memphis
LA
Pittsburgh
Chicago
Vancouver
Houston
Kansas City
Cleveland
Montreal

Likely Out (less than 18 million available)
Houston
Buffalo

Candidates
Philly (34 million)
Cincy (30 million)
Toledo (25 million)
Texas (19 million)
Charlotte (19 million)
Milwaukee (18 million)
Fresno (18 million)
St Louis (18 million)




Monday, May 6, 2013

Weekly Top 10 - Weeks 1 and 2

1. Durham Tar Heels (25-8) - The Tar Heels were 4-2 vs the Top 10. They are 1st in Batting, 11th in Pitching, and average in the field.

2. Boston Massacre (25-7) - Probably the best team that 1530 has ever seen, the Mascara are likely to never lose another game. They were 3-3 vs the Top 10. They are 2nd in Batting, 13th in Pitching,  8th in Fielding, and 1st in blog curses.

3. Salt Lake City Mormons (17-15)  - A better team than their record would indicate. 3-3 vs the Top 10. They are 3rd in Batting, 9th in Pitching, and average in the field.

4. Helena Hustle (22-10) - The NL's best team, they were 8-2 vs the Top 10. They are 7th in Batting, 6th in Pitching, and 3rd in Fielding.

5. Kansas City Crusaders (23-9) - The Evil Empire finished the week 6-3 vs. the Top 10. They were average at the plate, 2nd on the mound, and 11th in the field.

6. San Francisco Shoreman (18-14) - 2-5 vs the Top 10, average in Batting, 1st in Pitching, 4th in Fielding.

7. Atlanta Aces (22-10) - The Aces were 2-1 vs the Top 10, even more impressive given the instability in their ownership.  Average in Batting, 9th in Pitching, 1st in Fielding

8. Salem Aggies (17-15) - Another team much better than their record, the Aggies were 3-6 vs teh Top 10. They are 4th in Batting, below average in Pitching, and above average in Fielding.

9. Pittsburgh Partymen (18-14) - 2-8 vs the Top 10 so the schedule should get easier. Below average in Batting, 4th in Pitching, and 6th in Fielding.

10. Baltimore Choppers (18-15) - 5-5 for the week vs. the Top 10. Average in Batting, 7th in Pitching, and 9th in Fielding.

Monday, April 22, 2013

All-available Free Agent Squad

Every season I put this squad together, but this one is better than most. This bullpen represents all four of Maddie's top FA RP's. Happy shopping!

C - Luis Garza
1B - Julian Guerrero
2B - Sean Gorecki
SS - Scott Lee
3B - Renyel Beltre
LF - Braeden Fonda
CF - Tom Wilkinson
RF - Tris Bragg
DH - Jorge Vega
BENCH BAT - Norm Tucker
BENCH GLOVE - Oswaldo De La Vega
BENCH VS RHP - Brooks Edwards
BENCH VS LHP - Guy Dalrymple
SP1 - Chan Ho Sugawara
SP2 - Hughie Davis
SP3 - Slash Bierbrodt
SP4 - Dewey Prior
SP5 - Victor Olmeda
LRA - Charles Pelfrey
LRB - Delino Oliva
SUA - Glenn Willingham
SUB - Desi Colon
SUB - Max Rijo
CLA - Luis Piedra

Wednesday, April 17, 2013

The Blog's HOF Ballot

1. J.R. Beckett - SP, Durham - Simply one of the best SP's to play the game. 7 all-star appearances and 4 Cy Young Awards while pitching mostly in a hitter's ballpark. 253-102 with a 3.11 ERA. Voted as one of the best 5 SP's in the first 25 years of 1530 Homer

2. Philip Colin - SP, Montreal - 1st in wins and 2nd in strikeouts, Colin won a Cy Young and earned 4 World Series rings. 325-173 with an ERA of 3.77.

3. Esteban Owen, RF, Houston - A career .302 hitter, Owen hit 649 HR's and batted in 1801 while earning one MVP and 5 all star appearances. A decent defensive RF, as well. Voted the best RF in 25 years of 1530 Homer

4. Francis Herzog, CF,  Buffalo - A rare combination of defense in offense in a tough position to find them both, Herzog appeared in seven all star games and won nine silver sluggers in Center. A career .289 batter with an OPS of .960, he hit 468 homers and batted in 1393 runs. Voted the best CF in the first 25 years of 1530 Homer

5. TBD

Hall Of Fame Win Shares - Pitchers



Current HOF'rs

1 - Rob Branson - OPS allowed of .632 over 15 Seasons, while league average was .786 over same period - .154 better than average
2. Jay Burnitz - OPS allowed of .714 over his 20 seasons, while the average  pitcher was .778 over the same period - .64 better than average
3. John Fikac - OPS allowed of .689 over his 17 seasons, while average pitcher was .783 over the same period - .94 better than average
Average SP HOF'r - OPS allowed of 1.04 OPS allowed better than average
4. Wilfredo Veras - OPS allowed of .659 over his 20 seasons, while average pitcher was .768 over the same period - .109 better than average
5. Dave Darr, OPS allowed of .652 over his 21 seasons, while average was .758 over same period - .106 better than average

I have argued in previous posts, for SP's, that 1.00 OPS better than average is a no doubt Hall of Famer. Anything less must take other factors into consideration. 

Hold-over candidates
J.R. Beckett, OPS allowed of .634 over his 18 seasons, while league average was .770 over same period - .136 better than average
Miguel Vazquez - OPS allowed of .701 over his 24 seasons, while average was .773 over the same period - .72 better than average
Willie Wheat - OPS allowed of .697 over his 20 seasons, while average was .768 over same period - .71 better than average. 
Richard Aoki, OPS allowed of .729 over his 24 seasons, while league average was .769 over same period - .60 better than average

Newbies
Philip Colin, OPS allowed of .681 over his 23 seasons, while league average was .779 over same period - .98 better than average
Heinie Conigliaro, OPS allowed of .722 over his 20 seasons, while league average was .779 over same period - .57 better than average
Ramon Chen, OPS allowed of .717 over his 21 seasons, while league average was .783 over same period - .66 better than average

My Ballot - Beckett, Colin

Hall Of Fame - Win Shares Position Players


Win Shares - Position Players

Those in the Hall
1. Charles Lawrence - 17 Seasons, 95.56 wins, 5.62 per season
2. Milton Simmons - 18 Seasons, 71.66 wins, 3.98 per season
3. Eddie Reese - 15 Seasons, 64.51 wins, 4.30 per season
4. Adam Lansing - 12 Seasons, 53.59 wins, 4.47 per season
5. Clinton Clifton - 16 seasons, 63.12 wins, 3.95 per season
6. Rollie Walker - 14 Seasons, 53.16 wins, 3.54 per season
7. Juan Johnson - 17 Seasons, 43.81 wins,  2.58 per season
8. Brent Sabel - 16 Seasons, 42.09 wins, 2.63 per season
9. Wesley Graves - 15 Seasons, 34.64 wins, 2.38 per season
10. Rogers Torrealba - 15 Seasons, 31.49 wins, 2.09 per season

Hold-over candidates
Francis Herzog - 16 seasons, 58.17 wins, 3.64 per season
Sergio Dupler - 15 Seasons, 38.64 wins, 2.58 per season
Phil Iwazaki - 16 Seasons, 19.7 wins, 1.23 per season
Brendan Watson - 14 seasons, 19.65 wins, 1.40 per season
Ignacio Cruz - 13 Seasons, 11.7 wins, .9 wins per season

Newbies
Esteban Owen - 17 seasons, 47.75 wins, 2.80 per season

My ballot will include Owen and Herzog

Monday, April 15, 2013

Mega Deals- 3 PM Cycle

The 3 PM cycle on the last day of free agency is when we finally have answers on some of the top Free Agents. These are guys that have multiple offers in from teams that have both pursued them from the first day, to those that joined in after missing on other targets. For that reason, the price tends to be high. Here are three of the largest....

1. Aaron Simon, SP, Cleveland, 5 years $78.5 million plus a 5.5 million bonus
Analysis - A 32 year old that almost won the Cy Young last season, Simon is 116-61 with an OPS allowed of .727 over his ML career. He is a very good SP, but intangibles might make those last two years of the contract a tough pill to swallow.

2. Angel Palmeiro, SP, Baltimore, 5 years $58 million
Analysis - Palmeiro compares favorably to the other Top, young(ish) southpaw on the market (Mule Service). 95-65 with an OPS allowed of .695 over his career. Should be a top of the rotation guy for the duration of his contract.

3. Anthony Patterson, SP, Jacksonville, 5 years $84.2 million with a player option and no trade clause
Analysis - rbjb went all-in on this 33 year old righty SP. 158-112 with an ERA of 4.29 and OPS allowed of .738, Patterson is the rare lefty that can get RHB's out. A good, albeit expensive, addition for a contender.

Free Agency So Far

Here's a look at some of the big FA deals. Vote on your favorite to the right.

1. Stevie Waters, SP, Honolulu, 5 years $49.5 million, $2 million bonus
Analysis - Waters was one of the first SP's to sign, and rdierkers made sure that he got him by going strong. 32 years old, he's 90-75 with a 3.73 ERA and OPS allowed under .700. Solid signing fir a solid SP.

2. Brant Riggan, SP, Salt Lake City, 3 years $20.4 million with a mutual option
Analysis - Riggan is 149-127 with an ERA of 4.16 and an OPS allowed of .717. An inning-eater with solid ratings across the board, he will struggle vs. lefties and might lose some his ratings by the time the option comes due. A smart signing.

3. Bernie Pena, SP/RP, Durham, 3 years $18.9 million with a mutual option
Analysis - Already 36 and injury prone, Durham took a gamble on a very good SP/LRA type. Suspect stamina might keep him out of the rotation, but a career ERA of 3.40 and OPS allowed of .655 are hard to ignore.

4. Timothy Crawford, SP, Honolulu, 3 years $31.5 million with a $2 million bonus
Analysis - The best SP on the market, Crawford is 208-122 with an ERA of 3.91 and OPS allowed of .681 over his 15 borderline-HOF career. rdierkers feels that his time is now, and no better way to start it than with the #1 SP on the market.

5. Derek Burgess, SS, Baltimore, 5 years $34.8 million
Analysis - With all the attention being paid to SP's, superskrull likely had no competition for the #2 position player on the market. While a marginal SP, Burgess would be a plus defender at 3B or 2B. Career OPS of .767, while not great, is very good for what he brings defensively. Burgess will likely be a COF by the time the contract expires, so the value might not be there in years 3-5.

6. Bubbles Judd, SP/RP Salt Lake City, 2 years $13 million
Analysis - Like Pena, Judd is a marginal SP due to low stamina, but elite otherwise. 81-37 with an OPS allowed of .698, Judd is a perfect fit for a playoff bound team like SLC.

7. Mule Service, SP, Durham 5 years $63.2 million with a mutual option
Analysis - Still only 30, Service is 84-81 with an OPS allowed of .729. Excellent control should help in homer-friendly Durham. Very good intangibles indicates taht he will hold ratings well throughout the life of the contract.

8. Jonathan Gload, LF, Cleveland 4 years $29.8 million with a no-trade
Analysis - The #1 position player on the market, Gload is one of the best bats in 1530. Although is power is being sapped by age, he is still a lock for a >.850 OPS. A great deal for 3 of the 4 years as long as davidlove also invests in training, medical, and coaches.

9. David Lira, CF, Salt Lake City 5 years $25.2 million with a mutual option.
Analysis - Released by Atlanta,  Lira is an odd player. Elite defensively and an ideal lead-off man, his career OBP of .343 and OPS of .638 is underwhelming.

10. Welington Chavez, 3B, Tampa Bay 5 years $40.1 million
Analysis - Much like Burgess, very good at 3B and 2B, but lacks ideal ratings for SS. Career OPS of .809 and only 31, I like this deal better than the one for Burgess, although Chavez relies on power, which is likely the first thing to start dropping.