I loooooove winning!

Wednesday, April 17, 2013

The Blog's HOF Ballot

1. J.R. Beckett - SP, Durham - Simply one of the best SP's to play the game. 7 all-star appearances and 4 Cy Young Awards while pitching mostly in a hitter's ballpark. 253-102 with a 3.11 ERA. Voted as one of the best 5 SP's in the first 25 years of 1530 Homer

2. Philip Colin - SP, Montreal - 1st in wins and 2nd in strikeouts, Colin won a Cy Young and earned 4 World Series rings. 325-173 with an ERA of 3.77.

3. Esteban Owen, RF, Houston - A career .302 hitter, Owen hit 649 HR's and batted in 1801 while earning one MVP and 5 all star appearances. A decent defensive RF, as well. Voted the best RF in 25 years of 1530 Homer

4. Francis Herzog, CF,  Buffalo - A rare combination of defense in offense in a tough position to find them both, Herzog appeared in seven all star games and won nine silver sluggers in Center. A career .289 batter with an OPS of .960, he hit 468 homers and batted in 1393 runs. Voted the best CF in the first 25 years of 1530 Homer

5. TBD

Hall Of Fame Win Shares - Pitchers



Current HOF'rs

1 - Rob Branson - OPS allowed of .632 over 15 Seasons, while league average was .786 over same period - .154 better than average
2. Jay Burnitz - OPS allowed of .714 over his 20 seasons, while the average  pitcher was .778 over the same period - .64 better than average
3. John Fikac - OPS allowed of .689 over his 17 seasons, while average pitcher was .783 over the same period - .94 better than average
Average SP HOF'r - OPS allowed of 1.04 OPS allowed better than average
4. Wilfredo Veras - OPS allowed of .659 over his 20 seasons, while average pitcher was .768 over the same period - .109 better than average
5. Dave Darr, OPS allowed of .652 over his 21 seasons, while average was .758 over same period - .106 better than average

I have argued in previous posts, for SP's, that 1.00 OPS better than average is a no doubt Hall of Famer. Anything less must take other factors into consideration. 

Hold-over candidates
J.R. Beckett, OPS allowed of .634 over his 18 seasons, while league average was .770 over same period - .136 better than average
Miguel Vazquez - OPS allowed of .701 over his 24 seasons, while average was .773 over the same period - .72 better than average
Willie Wheat - OPS allowed of .697 over his 20 seasons, while average was .768 over same period - .71 better than average. 
Richard Aoki, OPS allowed of .729 over his 24 seasons, while league average was .769 over same period - .60 better than average

Newbies
Philip Colin, OPS allowed of .681 over his 23 seasons, while league average was .779 over same period - .98 better than average
Heinie Conigliaro, OPS allowed of .722 over his 20 seasons, while league average was .779 over same period - .57 better than average
Ramon Chen, OPS allowed of .717 over his 21 seasons, while league average was .783 over same period - .66 better than average

My Ballot - Beckett, Colin

Hall Of Fame - Win Shares Position Players


Win Shares - Position Players

Those in the Hall
1. Charles Lawrence - 17 Seasons, 95.56 wins, 5.62 per season
2. Milton Simmons - 18 Seasons, 71.66 wins, 3.98 per season
3. Eddie Reese - 15 Seasons, 64.51 wins, 4.30 per season
4. Adam Lansing - 12 Seasons, 53.59 wins, 4.47 per season
5. Clinton Clifton - 16 seasons, 63.12 wins, 3.95 per season
6. Rollie Walker - 14 Seasons, 53.16 wins, 3.54 per season
7. Juan Johnson - 17 Seasons, 43.81 wins,  2.58 per season
8. Brent Sabel - 16 Seasons, 42.09 wins, 2.63 per season
9. Wesley Graves - 15 Seasons, 34.64 wins, 2.38 per season
10. Rogers Torrealba - 15 Seasons, 31.49 wins, 2.09 per season

Hold-over candidates
Francis Herzog - 16 seasons, 58.17 wins, 3.64 per season
Sergio Dupler - 15 Seasons, 38.64 wins, 2.58 per season
Phil Iwazaki - 16 Seasons, 19.7 wins, 1.23 per season
Brendan Watson - 14 seasons, 19.65 wins, 1.40 per season
Ignacio Cruz - 13 Seasons, 11.7 wins, .9 wins per season

Newbies
Esteban Owen - 17 seasons, 47.75 wins, 2.80 per season

My ballot will include Owen and Herzog

Monday, April 15, 2013

Mega Deals- 3 PM Cycle

The 3 PM cycle on the last day of free agency is when we finally have answers on some of the top Free Agents. These are guys that have multiple offers in from teams that have both pursued them from the first day, to those that joined in after missing on other targets. For that reason, the price tends to be high. Here are three of the largest....

1. Aaron Simon, SP, Cleveland, 5 years $78.5 million plus a 5.5 million bonus
Analysis - A 32 year old that almost won the Cy Young last season, Simon is 116-61 with an OPS allowed of .727 over his ML career. He is a very good SP, but intangibles might make those last two years of the contract a tough pill to swallow.

2. Angel Palmeiro, SP, Baltimore, 5 years $58 million
Analysis - Palmeiro compares favorably to the other Top, young(ish) southpaw on the market (Mule Service). 95-65 with an OPS allowed of .695 over his career. Should be a top of the rotation guy for the duration of his contract.

3. Anthony Patterson, SP, Jacksonville, 5 years $84.2 million with a player option and no trade clause
Analysis - rbjb went all-in on this 33 year old righty SP. 158-112 with an ERA of 4.29 and OPS allowed of .738, Patterson is the rare lefty that can get RHB's out. A good, albeit expensive, addition for a contender.

Free Agency So Far

Here's a look at some of the big FA deals. Vote on your favorite to the right.

1. Stevie Waters, SP, Honolulu, 5 years $49.5 million, $2 million bonus
Analysis - Waters was one of the first SP's to sign, and rdierkers made sure that he got him by going strong. 32 years old, he's 90-75 with a 3.73 ERA and OPS allowed under .700. Solid signing fir a solid SP.

2. Brant Riggan, SP, Salt Lake City, 3 years $20.4 million with a mutual option
Analysis - Riggan is 149-127 with an ERA of 4.16 and an OPS allowed of .717. An inning-eater with solid ratings across the board, he will struggle vs. lefties and might lose some his ratings by the time the option comes due. A smart signing.

3. Bernie Pena, SP/RP, Durham, 3 years $18.9 million with a mutual option
Analysis - Already 36 and injury prone, Durham took a gamble on a very good SP/LRA type. Suspect stamina might keep him out of the rotation, but a career ERA of 3.40 and OPS allowed of .655 are hard to ignore.

4. Timothy Crawford, SP, Honolulu, 3 years $31.5 million with a $2 million bonus
Analysis - The best SP on the market, Crawford is 208-122 with an ERA of 3.91 and OPS allowed of .681 over his 15 borderline-HOF career. rdierkers feels that his time is now, and no better way to start it than with the #1 SP on the market.

5. Derek Burgess, SS, Baltimore, 5 years $34.8 million
Analysis - With all the attention being paid to SP's, superskrull likely had no competition for the #2 position player on the market. While a marginal SP, Burgess would be a plus defender at 3B or 2B. Career OPS of .767, while not great, is very good for what he brings defensively. Burgess will likely be a COF by the time the contract expires, so the value might not be there in years 3-5.

6. Bubbles Judd, SP/RP Salt Lake City, 2 years $13 million
Analysis - Like Pena, Judd is a marginal SP due to low stamina, but elite otherwise. 81-37 with an OPS allowed of .698, Judd is a perfect fit for a playoff bound team like SLC.

7. Mule Service, SP, Durham 5 years $63.2 million with a mutual option
Analysis - Still only 30, Service is 84-81 with an OPS allowed of .729. Excellent control should help in homer-friendly Durham. Very good intangibles indicates taht he will hold ratings well throughout the life of the contract.

8. Jonathan Gload, LF, Cleveland 4 years $29.8 million with a no-trade
Analysis - The #1 position player on the market, Gload is one of the best bats in 1530. Although is power is being sapped by age, he is still a lock for a >.850 OPS. A great deal for 3 of the 4 years as long as davidlove also invests in training, medical, and coaches.

9. David Lira, CF, Salt Lake City 5 years $25.2 million with a mutual option.
Analysis - Released by Atlanta,  Lira is an odd player. Elite defensively and an ideal lead-off man, his career OBP of .343 and OPS of .638 is underwhelming.

10. Welington Chavez, 3B, Tampa Bay 5 years $40.1 million
Analysis - Much like Burgess, very good at 3B and 2B, but lacks ideal ratings for SS. Career OPS of .809 and only 31, I like this deal better than the one for Burgess, although Chavez relies on power, which is likely the first thing to start dropping.